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Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey

Öztürk S., Bayrak Y.

Acta Geophysica

2012

Vol. 60, no. 1

92-118

A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96°N–40.69 °E (around Aşkale, Erzurum), 39.36°N–39.74°E (around Ovac?k, Tunceli), 39.02°N–40.52°E (including Elaz?g( and Bingöl), and 38.45°N–42.94 °E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 ±1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009.5 and 2010.5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as ±1.5 years. We have found that the M W = 6.0 Elazig (earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.

Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis

Öztürk S.

Acta Geophysica

2011

Vol. 59, no. 2

209-238

Characteristics of seismic activity along the North Anatolian Fault Zone are analyzed between 1970 and 2010. Magnitude completeness changes between 2.7 and 2.9 in the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes is well represented with a b-value typically close to 1. A clear decrease in temporal distribution of b-value is observed before the strong main shocks. Correlation dimension values are relatively large and the seismic activity is more clustered at larger scales in the North Anatolian Fault Zone. A statistical assessment is made in order to detect the current seismic quiescence anomalies in the beginning of 2010. Eight significant anomalous zones throughout the North Anatolian Fault Zone are detected. These are centered at: (1) 41.08°N-28.58°E (around Silivri), (2) 41.47°-29.51°E (in the Black Sea), (3) 40.69°N-29.78°E (including Izmit), (4) 40.26°N-26.46°E (around Gelibolu, Canakkale), (5) 40.59°N- 31.03°E (including Duzce fault), (6) 40.86°N-35.30°E (around Amasya), (7) 39.48°N-39.74°E (around Erzincan), and (8) 39.06°N-40.50°E (around Bingol).