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A comparative analysis of injuries and deaths caused by road traffic accidents in Poland and selected EU countries

Kozicki Bartosz, Skrabacz Aleksandra

Transport Problems

2024

T. 19, z. 1

57--67

The article examines the relationship between three dependent variables: the quantity of accidents on roads in Poland and the quantities of those hurt and killed as a result. Data were obtained from police websites between 2016 and 2021. Multidimensional comparative analyses were used for the research, which, by grouping data and compiling them dynamically in various scales depending on the needs, allowed us to observe trends such as seasonality on a monthly basis (data in a month - Fig. 2) and a downward trend (data in years Fig. 3). This became a premise for building a multiple regression model, which allowed us to dynamically observe the correlation between the quantity of accidents in Poland and the quantity of people hurt and killed as a result. The above-mentioned regularity was described by the function: Y = ‒67,9212 + 1,3341*v(2) + 0,7332*v(3) + +28,4305*v(4) and the built model was analyzed and evaluated. Then, information on the quantity of road accidents and quantities of people killed and hurt in the capital city of Warsaw from January 2021 to December 2022 were used for the research and compared with the data observed throughout Poland. To observe the impact of the random factor, which was a strong increase in the scale of fines in 2022, especially for exceeding the limit of speed by approximately more than 31 km/h. Dynamic indices on a constant base were calculated for the research. It was found that in 2022, compared to 2021, there was a visible decline in the quantity of people killed in road accidents in Warsaw from 42 to 30 people. A similar regularity can be observed in the data on fatalities in road accidents throughout Poland in the identical time period [11]. Moreover, there was no correlation between the time series of fatalities in road accidents in Warsaw and the quantity of accidents and injuries in 2022.