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Forecasting the number of road accidents in Poland using trend models depending on the days of the week

Gorzelanczyk Piotr

Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn

2024

Vol. 27

175--192

Every year a very large number of people die on the roads. Although the number decreases year by year, it remains high. The pandemic has reduced the number of road accidents, but the value is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to know on which days the highest number of traffic accidents occur, and to know the forecast of accidents by day of the week for the coming years, so that we can do everything possible to minimize the number of traffic accidents. The purpose of the article is to make a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland according to the day of the week. The research was divided into two parts. The first was the analysis of annual data from the Police statistics on the number of road accidents in Poland in 2000-2021, and on this basis the forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022-2031 was determined. The second part of the research, dealt with monthly data from 2000-2021. Again, the analyzed forecast for the period January 2022 – December 2023 was determined. The results of the study indicate that we can still expect a decline in the number of accidents in the coming years, which is particularly evident when analyzing annual data. It is worth noting that the prevailing pandemic distorts the results obtained. The research was conducted in MS Excel, using selected trend models.

Analiza zróżnicowania średniej dobowej liczby badań RTG i TK w zależności od dnia tygodnia oraz pory doby wykonywanych w Zakładzie Radiologii Szpitalnego Oddziału Ratunkowego

Wojtasik Aneta

Inżynier i Fizyk Medyczny

2022

Vol. 11, nr 4

359--363

Analiza liczby badań RTG i TK wykonywanych w kolejnych dniach tygodnia, a także w różnych okresach doby wykazała, że istnieją istotnie statystyczne zależności. W przypadku badań RTG najmniej wykonywano ich w niedziele, a najwięcej od poniedziałku do czwartku, przy tym najmniej w porze nocnej, a najwięcej po południu i wieczorem. Badań TK z kolei najmniej wykonywano w soboty i niedziele, a najwięcej w poniedziałki i środy, przy tym najmniej w nocy, a najwięcej po południu.

The analysis of the number of X-ray and CT examinations performed on the consecutive days of the week as well as in different periods of the day showed that there are significant statistical relationships. In the case of X-ray examinations, they were performed the least on Sundays, and the most from Monday to Thursday, and the least at night, and most in the afternoon and evening. In the case of CT examinations, the fewest were performed on Saturdays and Sundays, and the most on Mondays and Wednesdays, the least at night and the most in the afternoon.