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1 Przegląd Geofizyczny

1 2005

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Wpływ zmian temperatury powierzchni Atlantyku Północnego na czas zalegania pokrywy śnieżnej w Polsce

Falarz M., Marsz A. A.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

2005

Z. 1-2

13-29

The aim of this paper is to find an answer to the question whether there are statistically significant relationships between the snow cover duration in Poland and the sea surface temperature of different regions in the North Atlantic Ocean. Connections of the number of days with snow cover in the winter season at 66 meteorological stations located in Poland with anomalies of mean monthly sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic in so called "control grids" and with a few of the indices describing, in a complex way, some of the features of the changes in the heat distribution in the North Atlantic were examined using the methods of correlation and simple and multiple regressions. The correlations between the thermal conditions of the North Atlantic and the snow cover duration are synchronically - the observed changes in the duration of the period with snow cover are delayed by 4-5 months when referred to the year in which the changes in sea surface temperature took place. These correlations are relatively weak and changeable over time. They become stronger in periods in which zonal circulation prevails and at the time of stronger influence of meridional circulation they weaken. The sea areas whose changeability in thermal conditions indicates strongest correlations with the snow cover duration in Poland are located in the west part of the Atlantic Ocean. The snow cover duration in Poland is significantly influenced by the changes in thermal conditions of the Sargasso Sea over the period from January to May preceding the winter season and by the changes in currents regimes: 1) the cold Labrador Current in spring preceding the winter season and 2) the warm Florida Current in the period of winter preceding a winter season in Poland. The larger are heat resources in waters of the Sargasso Sea, the greater is the transport of warm waters carried with the Gulfstream and the stronger the influence of the cooled waters of the Labrador Current becomes, the shorter is the duration of snow cover in Poland in the following winter. The complex influence of the selected features of the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean illustrated with the help of three combined indices enables to explain 53% of the many year changeability in the mean duration of the snow cover in Poland and 63% of changeability in the number of days with snow cover in the north east part of Poland. However, the standard estimation error remains at quite high level (20% or more of the mean many year value of the snow cover duration).