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How do companies envisage the future? Functional foresight approaches

Kononiuk A., Sacio-Szymańska A., Gáspár J.

Engineering Management in Production and Services

2017

Vol. 9, no. 4

21--33

The main aim of the paper is to present the synthesis of the results of methodological analysis conducted on examples of foresight projects executed in chosen companies representing four companies type: small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), nonprofit-organization, international corporations and consulting companies as well as to posit functional approach for the implementation of foresight research within organizations. The empirical part of the study is based on the qualitative approach. A multiple case study methodology is employed. The research objects are sixteen companies experienced in foresight research. The first part of the paper gives an overview of definitions of corporate foresight and the analysis of background that have influence on the conducting of foresight in large multinational companies on one side and SMEs on the other side. In the field of the theory of foresight research, the study demonstrates that there are different motivations for foresight introduction as well as different organizational structure of teams conducting the activities and the approaches that they use. In the practical perspective, the study and a detailed functional foresight approach proposed by authors could be valuable for SMEs who consider implementing foresight research into their strategic planning processes.

Steps towards the integration of future-oriented technology analysis within a technology foresight system

Łabędzka J.

Problemy Eksploatacji

2010

nr 3

45-56

The paper examines the potential of integrating Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) with quantitative methods that can be used within foresight projects. The aim of this is to develop an integrated methodology that produces multidimensional factor spaces and hypotheses with a higher degree of probability. Moreover, the definition of technology foresight for national research institute has been also presented. Features of FTA and quantitative methods are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects executed at the Institute for Sustainable Technologies - National Research Institute, Radom, Poland. The overall aim of the paper is to present a selection of procedures that could be used to develop the modular design of technology foresight for a technological research institute.

W artykule zaprezentowano fragment modelu technologicznego foresightu dla państwowego instytutu badawczego integrujący wykorzystanie metod ilościowych FTA oraz metod eksperckich. Do tego celu wykorzystano autorską metodykę generowania wielowymiarowych przestrzeni czynników kluczowych oraz metodykę budowania scenariuszy z uwzględnieniem wyznaczania prawdopodobieństwa hipotez wchodzących z ich skład. Ponadto, przedstawiono autorska definicję foresightu dla jednostek o profilu technologicznym funkcjonujących w obszarze B+R. Zaprezentowano zestaw metod FTA oraz metod foresightowych, które można wykorzystać do rozwiązania następujących problemów badawczych: generowania czynników kluczowych systemu oraz wyznaczania prawdopodobieństwa scenariuszy. Podstawą zaprezentowanych analiz były doświadczenia zebrane w projektach realizowanych w Instytucie Technologii Eksploatacji - PIB.