This paper reports the use of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava. Bratislava is the capital of the Slovak Republic, as well as its major administrative and industrial centre. In the past, Bratislava has suffered from dangerous floods. The highest floods have occurred most frequently in the summer. Consequently, long-term forecasting of summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava has important scientific and practical significance. We used the dates of the highest summer floods for the period 1876-2018, as well as historical information about the highest summer floods that occurred before the beginning of regular hydrometric observations. The commensurability method supports prediction of various natural phenomena, including floods and other dangerous events. It is characterized by the simplicity of the calculations and minimum needs for input information. Four methods of forecasting were used: (1) the calculated value of commensurability; (2) the two-dimensional and three-dimensional graphs of commensurability; (3) the time intervals between floods that have occurred in the past; and (4) the number of commensurability equations with three components. The results indicate that the highest summer floods are likely to occur on the Danube at Bratislava in 2020, 2025, and 2030.
2
Dostęp do pełnego tekstu na zewnętrznej witrynie WWW
This article describes a new feature of measuring instruments, designated as commensurability. The analysis of this feature has been based on linear and rank correlation, and the linear correlation coefficient and the Spearman coefficient have been accepted as its measure. Two examples of commensurability estimation are presented, one considering a case when both instruments measure the same physical quantity, and the second when they measure different physical quantities.
PL
W artykule opisano nową cechę przyrządów pomiarowych, którą nazwano współmiernością. Analizę tej cechy oparto na korelacji liniowej i rangowej, a jako miarę liczbową zaproponowano współczynnik korelacji liniowej i współczynnik Spearmana. Podano dwa przykłady oceny współmierności dla przypadków, gdy badane przyrządy mierzą tę samą wielkość i różne wielkości fizyczne.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.