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Traffic behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential consequences for passenger rail transport in the example of selected European countries

Barczak Agnieszka, Kauf Sabina

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Morskiej w Szczecinie

2024

nr 78 (150)

22--34

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused vast changes in the functioning of societies and economies, including restrictions on the use of rail transportation. As a result, the number of passengers has declined, and despite the lifting of restrictions, it is still difficult to estimate when and if passenger rail traffic will return to its pre-pandemic state. Therefore, it seems important to consider the following: how the pandemic has affected the transportation behavior patterns of residents and, above all, what should be done to encourage passengers to use rail transportation more often, which is more environmentally friendly and reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, it seems important to consider what the “new normal” in rail transportation should look like. This article analyzes the number of passengers traveling by rail in eight European countries. This work considers quarterly data for 2013‒2019, combined passenger forecasts for 2020‒2021, and annual forecasts of rail passenger traffic until 2025 built using data for 2012‒2021.