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Spatial Analysis of Coastal Vulnerability Index to Sea Level Rise in Biak Numfor Regency (Indonesia)

Rumahorbo Basa T., Warpur Maklon, Tanjung Rosye H. R., Hamuna Baigo

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2023

Vol. 24, nr 3

113--125

Assessing the vulnerability of coastal areas is important in evaluating impact of sea level rise due to global climate change. This study aimed to spatially analyze and map the vulnerability level of the Biak Numfor Regency’s coastal area on Biak Island to the threat of sea level rise. The study area is limited to 500 m from the coastline and is divided into 383 grid cells. The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) method was used to map the level of vulnerability of coastal areas based on four coastal geological variables (coastal elevation, coastal slope, geomorphology, and shoreline change) and three ocean physical process variables (tidal range, average significant wave height, and relative sea level rise). The results showed that the coastal areas of Biak Numfor Regency, belonging to the low, medium and high-risk vulnerability categories, were 77,685.63 km (32.18%), 159,084.38 km (65.74%), and 5,024.96 km (2.08%), respectively. The variables that contribute significantly to the level of vulnerability are coastal elevation, coastal slope, coastal geomorphology, and shoreline changes due to abrasion compared to tidal range, significant wave heights, and sea level rise rates. Vulnerability studies of other variables that can contribute to the vulnerability of coastal areas are needed, such as socio-economic variables and the impact of human activities on changes in the coastal environment, to obtain a comprehensive CVI value in supporting coastal mitigation planning efforts against sea level rise disasters so that they are more focused.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability in Chabahar Bay due to climate change scenarios

Armanfar Mahmoudreza, Goharnejad Hamid, Niri Mahmoud Zakeri, Perrie Will

Oceanologia

2019

No. 61 (4)

412--426

A substantial body of research has shown that two key factors of global sea level rise are thermal expansion and melting of land-based ice, glaciers and ice sheets. Moreover, climate change may result in changes to wind speeds and directions, consequently resulting in contributions to variations in wind-wave components, wave heights and directions. In this research, climate change scenarios were used to assess the coastal vulnerability to the Chabahar port area due to global sea level rise, significant wave height changes and tidal regime effects. These three items were calculated separately using numerical models and the impacts of possible climate change scenarios were applied to estimate possible changes to these items by 2100. Significant wave heights for 25, 50 and 100-year return periods were evaluated. Based on statistical analysis, the maximum significant wave heights for the A2 and A1B scenarios were estimated at approximately 13.7 and 7.6, respectively. Since the main aim of this research was to assess the coastal zones at higher flood risk, therefore the mean global sea level rise, extreme values of significant wave heights and tidal heights were investigated. The height of sea during sea storms and for the most extreme case was calculated as 17.3 m and 11.2 m for A2 and the A1B scenarios, respectively. According to output maps of inundation areas, large coastal zones in the Chabahar port area are at risk due to the sea storms and possible climate change.