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1
Content available Identification of climate-weather change processes at Baltic Sea water area impacted on critical infrastructure safety and their accident consequences
Dąbrowska Ewa, Torbicki Mateusz
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
|
2021
|
Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021
77--116
EN
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the port oil piping transportation system and maritime ferry operating areas are presented.
2
Content available Monte Carlo simulation of climate-weather change process at maritime ferry operating area
Kuligowska E.
Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn
|
2018
|
nr 21(1)
5--17
EN
The paper presents a computer simulation technique applied to generating the climate-weather change process at Baltic Sea restricted waters and its characteristics evaluation. The Monte Carlo method is used under the assumption of semi-Markov model of this process. A procedure and an algorithm of climate-weather change process’ realizations generating and its characteristics evaluation are proposed to be applied in C# program preparation. Using this program, the climate-weather change process’ characteristics are predicted for the maritime ferry operating area. Namely, the mean values and standard deviations of the unconditional sojourn times, the limit values of transient probabilities and the mean values of total sojourn times for the fixed time at the climate-weather states are determined.
3
Content available Safety and Resilience of Baltic Port and Shipping Critical Infrastructure Network Related to Cascading Effects and Climate-Weather Change
Blokus-Roszkowska A., Guze S., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2018
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Vol. 9, No. 2
87--98
EN
The paper is devoted to presentation the safety model for Baltic Port and Shipping Critical Infrastructure Network (BPSCIN) taking into account interactions between Baltic Port Critical Infrastructure Network, Baltic Shipping Critical Infrastructure Network and Baltic Ship Traffic and Port Operation Information Critical Infrastructure Network. First of all, the BPSCIN and its safety parameters are introduced. Next, the basic information and necessary data to describe the interactions in considered critical infrastructure network are given. Finally, the safety, resilience and risk indicators of the BPSCIN are presented.
4
Content available Optimization of Operation and Safety of Global Baltic Network of Critical Infrastructure Networks (GBNCIN) with Considering Climate-Weather Change Process (C-WCP) influence – Minimizing GBNCIN Operation Cost
Dziula P., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2018
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Vol. 9, No. 1
53--60
EN
The paper presents a method of the GBNCIN operation and safety, with considering the climate-weather change process, safety optimization. Basic characteristics of the critical infrastructure operation process related to climateweather change process are shown. Then, the GBNCIN operation cost related to climate-weather change is introduced. Furthermore, by analysis of the operation cost of the GBNCIN impacted by the operation process, related to the climate-weather change process, and its conditional safety functions, mean values of the total sojourn times at particular operation states during certain sufficiently large GBNCIN operation time are fixed. Finally, the GBNCIN operation cost related to climate-weather change minimization, and cost analysis of the GBNCIN operation impacted by climate-weather change, are presented.
5
Content available Optimization of Operation and Safety of Baltic Port and Shipping Critical Infrastructure Network with Considering Climate-Weather Change Influence – Minimizing Critical Infrastructure Network Operation Cost
Guze S., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2018
|
Vol. 9, No. 1
61--70
EN
The paper is devoted the optimization of operation process and minimization of operation cost for Baltic Port and Shipping Critical Infrastructure Network (BPSCIN) at variable operation conditions related to the climateweather change. For this network, the optimal transient probabilities that minimize the mean value of the total operation costs are found. Finally, cost analysis of BPSCIN operation impacted by climate-weather change is presented in case the BPSCIN is non-repairable and in case it is repairable after exceeding its critical safety state.
6
Content available Optimization of Operation and Safety of Baltic Port and Shipping Critical Infrastructure Network with Considering Climate-Weather Change Influence – Maximizing Lifetime in the Set of Safety States Not Worse Than a Critical Safety State
Guze S., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2018
|
Vol. 9, No. 1
27--34
EN
The paper is devoted the optimization of operation process and maximization of safety lifetimes for Baltic Port and Shipping Critical Infrastructure Network (BPSCIN) at variable operation conditions related to the climateweather change. For this network, the optimal transient probabilities of BPSCIN operation process at operation states related to climate-weather change that maximize the mean value of BPSCIN safety lifetimes are found. Finally, the optimal safety and resilience indicators of considered network are presented.
7
Content available Minimization of Operation Cost of Critical Infrastructure Network with Cascading Effects Considering Climate-Weather Change Influence
Blokus-Roszkowska A., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2018
|
Vol. 9, No. 1
71--80
EN
In the paper optimization of operation process and minimization of operation cost for interconnected and interdependent critical infrastructure (CI) networks with cascading effects at variable operation conditions related to the climate-weather change are proposed. A multistate series network with assets dependent according to local load sharing (LLS) rule is analyzed and optimization of operation and safety of CI network with the LLS rule is introduced. For such CI network, the optimal transient probabilities that minimize the mean value of the total operation costs are found. Finally, cost analysis of CI network operation impacted by climate-weather change is presented in case the CI network is non-repairable and in case it is repairable after exceeding its critical safety state.
8
Content available Maximization of Safety Lifetime of Critical Infrastructure Network with Cascading Effects Considering Climate-Weather Change Influence
Blokus-Roszkowska A., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2018
|
Vol. 9, No. 1
35--42
EN
In the paper optimization of operation process and maximization of safety lifetimes for interconnected and interdependent critical infrastructure (CI) networks at variable operation conditions related to the climateweather change are proposed. A multistate series network with assets dependent according to local load sharing (LLS) rule is analyzed and optimization of operation and safety of CI network with the LLS rule is introduced. For such CI network, the optimal transient probabilities of CI network operation process at operation states related to climate-weather change that maximize the mean value of CI network safety lifetimes are found. Finally, the optimal safety and resilience indicators of CI network are presented.
9
Content available remote System safety model related to climate-weather change process application to port and maritime transport
Torbicki M.
Journal of KONBiN
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2018
|
No. 46
21--34
EN
The conditional safety functions at the climate-weather particular states and the unconditional safety functions of the port oil piping transportation system area and the maritime ferry, the mean values and the variances of those systems unconditional lifetimes and other safety indicators are determined. Those safety indicators, considering impact of the climate-weather change process, are evaluated for the piping system operating at under water Baltic sea area and for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia Port area.
PL
Warunkowe funkcje bezpieczeństwa w poszczególnych stanach klimatyczno-pogodowych i bezwarunkowe funkcje bezpieczeństwa portowego system transport ropy oraz technicznego systemu promu morskiego, wartości średnie i wariancje bezwarunkowego czasu życia tych systemów oraz inne wskaźniki bezpieczeństwa są wyznaczone. Te wskaźniki bezpieczeństwa, rozważając wpływ procesu zmian klimatyczno-pogodowych, są oszacowane dla portowego system transportu ropy w obszarze operacyjnym pod wodami Bałtyku oraz dla technicznego systemu promu morskiego, którego obszarem operacyjnym jest port w Gdyni.
10
Content available Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards
Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J., Torbicki M.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 2
85--106
EN
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states.
11
Content available Identification and prediction of port oil piping transportation system operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weathers hazards
Torbicki M.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 2
121--128
EN
The paper is concerned with an application of the critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards model to identification and prediction of this process for the port oil piping transportation system. There are distinguished three processes for the considered piping operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the operation process including operating environment threats and the climate-weather change processes for the piping operating area, there are determined the unknown parameters of these processes. Namely, the probabilities of the piping processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the piping processes transitions between the states and the mean values of the piping processes conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the piping operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards at the distinguished operating area.
12
Content available Identification and prediction of maritime ferry operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards
Kuligowska E.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 2
145--156
EN
The paper is concerned with an application of the model of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards to identification and prediction of this process for the maritime ferry. There are investigated four processes for the considered maritime ferry operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the operation process including operating environment threats and the climate-weather change processes for the maritime ferry operating area, there are determined the unknown parameters of these processes. Namely, the probabilities of the ferry processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the ferry processes transitions between the states and the mean values of the ferry processes conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the maritime ferry operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards at the distinguished operating areas.
13
Content available Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for maritime ferry operating area
Kuligowska E.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 2
129--134
EN
The paper is concerned with an application of the climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area model to identification and prediction of this process for maritime ferry operating area. For the considered ferry operating area, there are distinguished four different climate-weather change processes and their states. Further, there are identified the unknown parameters of those processes, i.e. the probabilities of the climate-weather change processes staying at the initial climate-weather states, the probabilities of the climateweather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the mean values of the climate-weather change processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.
14
Content available Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system operating area
Torbicki M.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 2
107--112
EN
The paper is concerned with an application of the climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area model to identification and prediction of this process for the port oil piping transportation system operating area. For the considered piping operating area, there are distinguished three different climate-weather change processes and their states. Further, there are identified the unknown parameters of those processes, i.e. the probabilities of the climate-weather change processes staying at the initial climate-weather states, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the mean values of the climate-weather change processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.
15
Content available EU-CIRCLE : A pan-European framework for strengthening critical infrastructure resilience to climate change Project taxonomy and methodology – Climate-weather change terminology and methodology
Blokus-Roszkowska A., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 1
217--230
EN
The paper presents climate-weather change terminology, selected from the fourth chapter of the report prepared in the scope of the EU-CIRCLE project. This project titled “A pan-European framework for strengthening Critical Infrastructure resilience to climate change – EU-CIRCLE” is realized under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. The improved terms and definitions coming from this chapter are presented. Moreover, methodology related to climate-weather change in the scope of project issues is introduced.
16
Content available remote Model of system safety related to climate-weather change process
Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J., Torbicki M.
Journal of KONBiN
|
2017
|
No. 43
241--248
EN
The article is devoted to the climate-weather change impact on the critical infrastructure safety. A general safety analytical model of the technical system related to the climate-weather change process in its operating area is proposed. It is the integrated model of the complex technical system safety, linking its multistate safety model and the model of the climate-weather change process at its operating area. The conditional safety functions at the climate weather particular states and the unconditional safety function of the complex system at changing in time climate-weather conditions, the mean value and the variance of the system unconditional lifetime and other safety indicators are defined in general for any critical infrastructure.
PL
Artykuł jest poświęcony wpływowi zmian pogodowo-klimatycznych na bezpieczeństwo infrastruktur krytycznych. Zaproponowano ogólny analityczny model bezpieczeństwa złożonego systemu technicznego związanego z procesem zmian klimatycznych, który oddziałuje na jego obszar operacyjny. Jest to zintegrowany model bezpieczeństwa systemu technicznego, który łączy wielostanowy model bezpieczeństwa i model procesu zmian klimatyczno-pogodowych w obszarze działania systemu. Warunkowe funkcje bezpieczeństwa w poszczególnych stanach klimatyczno-pogodowych i bezwarunkowa funkcji bezpieczeństwa systemu przy zmieniających się w czasie warunkach klimatyczno-pogodowych, wartość średnia i wariancja bezwarunkowego czasu życia systemu oraz inne wskaźniki bezpieczeństwa są zdefiniowane dla dowolnej infrastruktury krytycznej.
17
Content available Prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system and maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea area
Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2016
|
Vol. 7, No. 3
143--148
EN
There are presented the methods of prediction of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
18
Content available Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry
Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K., Kuligowska E., Soszyńska-Budny J., Torbicki M.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2016
|
Vol. 7, No. 3
41--46
EN
The climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at Port Gdynia and at Baltic Sea open waters between Gdynia bay and Karlskrona bay is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is defined and used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at considered areas.
19
Content available Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system
Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K., Kuligowska E., Soszyńska-Budny J., Torbicki M.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2016
|
Vol. 7, No. 3
31--40
EN
The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To construct this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. Preliminary applications of the proposed model to the climate-weather change process for the port oil transportation system operation area are presented.
20
Content available Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for critical infrastructure operating area
Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2016
|
Vol. 7, No. 3
149--154
EN
The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are introduced. The semi-Markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To build this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. To describe the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull distribution, the chimney distribution and the Gamma distribution are suggested and introduced.
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