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Detection of trends and break points in temperature: the case of Umbria (Italy) and Guadalquivir Valley (Spain)

Herrera-Grimaldi P., García-Marín A., Ayuso-Muñoz J. L., Flamini A., Morbidelli R., Ayuso-Ruíz J. L.

Acta Geophysica

2018

Vol. 66, no. 3

329--343

The increase of air surface temperature at global scale is a fact with values around 0.85 °C since the late nineteen century. Nevertheless, the increase is not equally distributed all over the world, varying from one region to others. Thus, it becomes interesting to study the evolution of temperature indices for a certain area in order to analyse the existence of climatic trend in it. In this work, monthly temperature time series from two Mediterranean areas are used: the Umbria region in Italy, and the Guadalquivir Valley in southern Spain. For the available stations, six temperature indices (three annual and three monthly) of mean, average maximum and average minimum temperature have been obtained, and the existence of trends has been studied by applying the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test. Both regions show a general increase in all temperature indices, being the pattern of the trends clearer in Spain than in Italy. The Italian area is the only one at which some negative trends are detected. The presence of break points in the temperature series has been also studied by using the non-parametric Pettit test and the parametric standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), most of which may be due to natural phenomena.