W pracy przedstawiono model matematyczny błędu metody oceny skuteczności systemu ochrony fizycznej obiektu. Przyjęto, że różnica czasu działań ochronnych i czasu działań przeciwnika jest zmienną losową, której wartość dystrybuanty w zerze określa prawdopodobieństwo skutecznej ochrony obiektu. Zaprezentowano wyniki obliczeń błędu dla wybranych rozkładów zmiennej losowej.
EN
The paper presents a mathematical model of error of the evaluation method of the effectiveness of the object’s physical protection system. It was assumed that the difference between protection actions time and enemy actions time is a variable whose distribution function value at zero determines probability of object’s effective protection. Results of the error calculation for selected distributions of random variable were presented.
Among the tested methods of valorisation for recreation the analysis in terms of usefulness for recreational investment or attractiveness of recreation play a leading role (they relate to areas of highest natural values). There are many partial methods for assessing the usefulness of areas for recreation (or tourism) dependent on spatial scale, degree of assessment generalization and professional orientation of the author. For urban areas or regions the role of the diversity of the geographical environment and communication accessibility of the area (the planning and spatial aspect,) stands out in the foreground. In studies on a local scale assessments of the resilience and health properties of the natural environment (the physiographic or phytosociological aspect) or following the needs of the people (the social aspect) are becoming more important. The new issue is a orientation of the conservational valorisation methods on determining of the recreation suitability of the cultural landscape of cities. The proper assessment of the recreation usefulness of historical areas needs by author to develop an indirect method, in which the analysis of the individual components of the geographical environment would impose usage patterns, taking into account the investment and spatial availability of areas, and natural and cultural values as elements of co-creating a harmonious landscape. Also the economic factors affecting the value of the land, and so far included occasionally have been subjected to a more detailed evaluation. The developed method of assessing the recreation usefulness of complex structures of the cultural landscape was based on the analysis of fortification works, preserved in the spatial structure of Warsaw. The method is based on the selected subgroups of criteria: primary- determining the recreation functions (the possibility of the introduction of recreational functions); secondary - determining the type of recreation. The primary criteria determine the current investment availability of areas and depend mainly on the way of development and use, ownership structure and purpose in the planning records. The secondary criteria determine the values of the area in terms of program and type of recreational behaviors.
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