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Arctic shipping routes as alternative to the Suez Canal

Pawelski Jan

Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie

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2022

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nr 70 (142)

41--51

EN

The grounding of a 400-meter long container vessel, called Ever Given, in the Suez Canal blocked the busiest shipping lane, which is responsible for 12% of seaborne trade, for 6 days. Some shipping companies had to divert their vessels and they had to take a much longer route around Africa to reach European ports. The concerned shipping industry started to look for alternative sea route to the Suez Canal with lesser risk of blockage, without a need to go around Africa. Such routes, which connect the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, exist in the Arctic and the warming of the global climate makes them more accessible over time but the assessment of their viability requires a multifaceted analysis based on available professional navigational publications, scientific papers, and knowledge of polar shipping realities. Several nautical aspects are taken into account with the purpose of choosing a polar route that is most suitable as an alternative to the Suez Canal. Three routes are under consideration. One of them is the Northern Sea Route in the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean, along the coast of the Russian Federation. The second route is the Northwest Passage through the western part of the Arctic, passing waters belonging to Greenland, Canada, and the United States. The third one passes near the North Pole, a prospective route that may become available for commercial shipping in the future due to Arctic ice shrinkage, and it is known as the Transpolar Route. Analysis of these routes unambiguously point to the Northern Sea Route as the only viable option. Most prospective alternatives to the Suez Canal are technically feasible with the new generation of cargo vessels and they are experiencing a growth in maritime traffic together with a steady development of associated infrastructure. The existing simplified analyses of the transit costs, assuming strait passage in polar waters without any course deviation and the additional fuel that is burnt to overcome increased friction during passage in ice, shows that under present conditions that the Suez Canal Route is still cheaper than any polar transit and, moreover, offers year-round availability. It cannot be ruled out that the upcoming warming of the Arctic climate, and a lowering of the transit tariffs by the Russian Federation may tip the balance in favor of the Northern Sea Route. Presented here is an analysis of the competitiveness of the Arctic Routes in comparison to the Suez Canal from the perspective of the mariner.

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Ship-iceberg detection & classification in sentinel-1 SAR images

Heiselberg H.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2020

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Vol. 14, no. 1

235--241

EN

The European Space Agency Sentinel-1 satellites provide good resolution all weather SAR images. We describe algorithms for detection and classification of ships, icebergs and other objects at sea. Sidelobes from strongly reflecting objects as large ships are suppressed for better determination of ship parameters. The resulting improved ship lengths and breadths are larger than the ground truth values known from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data due to the limited resolution in the processing of the SAR images as compared to previous analyses of Sentinel-2 optical images. The limited resolution in SAR imagery degrades spatial classification algorithms but it is found that the backscatter horizontal and vertical polarizations can be exploited to distinguish icebergs in the Arctic from large ships but not small boats or wakes.

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Ice conditions affecting passage of Polish vessels convoy though the NSR in 1956. Long-term ice forecasts and passage strategies

Pastusiak T.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2018

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Vol. 12, no. 1

101--106

EN

The goal of the study was to examine ice cover conditions that accompanied the passage of convoy of seven Polish vessels from Europe to the Far East in year 1956, which initiated an international commercial shipping transit. Several different sources of information on the state of ice cover in the Arctic were used in this study. Ice conditions (decisive for ability of a merchant vessel or icebreaker to cross the route) during the following navigational seasons in most of the NSR areas showed extremely divergent results - from the most favorable to the most difficult and vice versa. Existing in years 1940-1957 ice cover conditions and shipbuilding technologies did not guarantee a successful transit passage in one navigation season. The Soviet Union used icebreakers that were not able to lead vessels in heavy ice conditions that occurred in 1950s. The NSR Administration used passive strategy ? waiting for improvement of ice conditions - instead of forcing heavy ice. Passive strategy of navigation through the NSR included wintering and continuation of passage next year when ice conditions improved. Annual variability of ice conditions approximated by third degree polynomial line showed trends well. However, the high annual anomalies of ice conditions in relation to trend line did not allow for effective forecasts on particular sections of the NSR in next navigation season.

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Arctic shipping and risks: emergency categories and response capacities

Marchenko N., Andreassen N., Borch O. J., Kuznetsova S., Ingimundarson V., Jakobsen U.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2018

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Vol. 12, no. 1

107--114

EN

The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. The transport pattern has as a result partly changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may influence on the risk pattern. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability of nature. In this paper, we look into the risk of accidents in Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of emergency response. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic maritime accidents. Hence, this study offers a qualitative analysis and an expert-based risk assessment. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the Arctic region are discussed.