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Projections of the fuel consumption by the road transport in Poland

Chłopek Z, Waśkiewicz J.

Journal of KONES

2013

Vol. 20, No. 2

33--39

The article presents expert estimates for 2010 and a forecast up to year 2030 regarding the number of passenger cars as well as trucks and special vehicles and buses according to the maximum weight group. In case of trucks and special vehicles, included were vehicles with maximum weight of less than 3.5 Mg and maximum weight of more than 3.5 Mg. As regards buses – the condition and forecast number of buses with maximum weight of less than 5.0 Mg and more than 5.0 Mg was presented. The forecast concerning passenger cars and other types of vehicles with maximum weight of less than 3.5 Mg (5.0 Mg in case of buses) focused on the number of vehicles by type of energy. The following types of energy were included: petrol, diesel oil, LPG, NG and electrical energy in case of passenger cars and light duty trucks. Estimates also included the average annual statistical mileage of a vehicle registered in Poland according to the specified category and type of energy. Based on the assumed assumptions in the 2030 perspective – the average fuel consumption was determined per 100 km of statistical mileage in every specified category. The predicted consumption of respective types of energy by the overall Polish car fleet was calculated and according to the specified category in years 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.

Projection of the demand for energy sources by car fleet in Poland by the year 2030

Chłopek Z., Waśkiewicz J.

Combustion Engines

2013

R. 52, nr 2

63--74

The paper presents an expert assessment of the number of passenger cars and light trucks (with a maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 Mg), trucks (with a maximum mass exceeding 3.5 Mg) and buses for 2010 and forecast up to the 2030 taking into account types of energy sources (petrol, diesel fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas and electricity). The average annual mileage and average operational consumption of energy sources have been estimated. On this basis, the projected energy sources consumption for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 has been defined.

W opracowaniu przedstawiono eksperckie oszacowanie liczby samochodów osobowych, lekkich samochodów ciężarowych (o masie maksymalnej nie przekraczającej 3,5 Mg), samochodów ciężarowych (o masie maksymalnej przekraczającej 3,5 Mg) i autobusów dla 2010 r. i prognozę do 2030 r. z uwzględnienie rodzajów nośników energii (benzyna, olej napędowy, skroplony gaz ropopochodny, gaz ziemny i energia elektryczna). Oszacowano średnie roczne przebiegi oraz średnie eksploatacyjne zużycie nośników energii. Na tej podstawie wyznaczono dla lat 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 i 2030 przewidywane zużycie nośników energii.