Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

1

Analyzing trend and forecast of rainfall and temperature in Valmiki Tiger Reserve, India, using non parametric test and random forest machine learning algorithm

Roshani, Sajjad Haroon, Saha Tamal Kanti, Rahaman Md Hibjur, Masroor Md, Sharma Yatendra, Pal Swades

Acta Geophysica

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2023

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Vol. 71, no. 1

531--552

EN

Assessment of spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables and their forecast is essential in the context of climate change. Such analysis can help suggest possible solutions for flora and fauna in protected areas and adaptation strategies to make forests and communities more resilient. The present study attempts to analyze climate variability, trend and forecast of temperature and rainfall in the Valmiki Tiger Reserve, India. We utilized rainfall and temperature gridded data obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department during 1981–2020. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed to examine the time series trend and magnitude of change at the annual, monthly and seasonal levels. Random forest machine learning algorithm was used to estimate seasonal prediction and forecasting of rainfall and temperature trend for the next ten years (2021–2030). The predictive capacity of the model was evaluated by statistical performance assessors of coefficient of correlation, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. The findings revealed a significant decreasing trend in rainfall and an increasing trend in temperature. However, a declining trend for maximum temperature has been observed for winter and post-monsoon seasons. The results of seasonal forecasting exhibited a considerable decrease in rainfall and temperature across the Reserve during all the seasons. However, the temperature will increase during the summer season. The random forest machine learning algorithm has shown its effectiveness in forecasting the temperature and rainfall variables. The findings suggest that these approaches may be used at various spatial scales in different geographical locations.

2

Wpływ długości szeregów czasowych na wyniki analizy trendów zmian stężeń zanieczyszczeń w wodach podziemnych

Stojek Małgorzata, Palak-Mazur Dorota

Gospodarka Wodna

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2022

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Nr 8

18--23

PL

W Polsce oceniany jest stan chemiczny jednolitych części wód podziemnych oraz zmienność w czasie substancji pochodzenia antropogenicznego. Wymóg identyfikacji znaczących i utrzymujących się trendów wzrostowych oraz określenia roku lub okresu bazowego zawarty jest w Ramowej Dyrektywie Wodnej (RDW, Dyrektywa 2000/60/WE). Stosując się do nadrzędnych przepisów unijnych, analiza trendów zmian wykonywana jest od 2007 r. W raportach technicznych zaleca się z kolei ograniczenie długości szeregów czasowych w analizie trendów zmian do 15 lat wykonywanych badań. Analiza trendów zmian azotanów, manganu i potasu w wodach podziemnych wykazała, że długość szeregu czasowego ma wpływ na kluczowe parametry statystyczne. W przypadku zarówno za długich, jak i za krótkich serii pomiarowych można wyciągnąć błędne wnioski co do trendów zmian jakości wód w czasie. Wykazanie, że trend jest znaczący i utrzymuje się wzrostowo, jest sygnałem do podejmowania działań, które mają zapobiec zanieczyszczeniu wód podziemnych. Identyfikacja takich zmian powinna opierać się na jednolitej metodyce i być dostosowana do działań cykli planistycznych oraz terminów wykonywania oceny stanu chemicznego wód podziemnych.

EN

Poland carries out the assessment of the groundwater bodies’ chemical status and the variability of anthropogenic substances in time. The requirement to identify significant and lasting upward trends and determine the reference year or period is set forth in the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/WE). In compliance with the master European regulations, the analysis of variations trends has been carried out since 2007. On the other hand, technical reports recommend limitation of the time series length in the analysis of variation trends to 15 years of research. The analysis of trends in nitrates, manganese and potassium concentrations variations in groundwater proved that the time series length has impact on the key statistical parameters. In case of too long or too short measurement series, the conclusions concerning the trends in water quality variations in time can be mistaken. Showing that a trend is significant and constantly upwards is a signal to undertake actions to prevent groundwater pollution. Identification of such changes should be based on a uniform methodology and be adapted to planning cycles and dates of groundwater chemical status assessments.

3

Trend analysis of water quality parameters in the middle part of the Danube flow in Serbia

Salvai Andrea, Grabic Jasna, Josimov-Dundjerski Jasmina, Zemunac Rados, Antonic Nenad, Savic Radovan, Blagojevic Bosko

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering. S

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2022

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Vol. 29, nr 1

51--63

EN

The Danube River plays significant role not only for preserving natural ecosystems. The aim of this paper is to examine the Middle Danube water quality in the part flowing through Serbia in section Bezdan - Banatska Palanka. Water quality data were examined for seven control points for period 2004-2018, for seven parameters: suspended solids (SS), dissolved oxygen (DO), electrical conductivity (EC), nitrates (NO3–-N), total phosphorus (Ptot), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) and chemical oxygen demand (COD). Data analyses included the application of ANOVA, linear regression analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test. The Mann-Kendall tests in most (32/49) cases, i.e. in 65 %, confirmed the non-existence of a significant trend. Significant downward trends were confirmed in 17 cases. Water quality improvement was confirmed at following control points: Bezdan for NO3–-N, Ptot and BOD5; Bogojevo for NO3–-N, Ptot, COD and BOD5; Novi Sad for Ptot, BOD5 and COD; Slankamen for BOD5 and COD; Smederevo for NO3–-N and COD; Banatska Palanka for NO3–-N. Slight deterioration of water quality was confirmed only in two cases, at the Zemun and Smederevo where DO was decreasing. Water quality for the examined period was stable and can be characterised as excellent and/or very good (class I or class II). Results emphasise fact that water quality trends monitoring reveals river sectors where the process of water quality degradation is ongoing. Timely detected critical river sectors can draw the attention of decision-makers, who can improve the existing legislation that would lead to water quality improvement.

4

Value addition in coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 over phase 5: global perspectives of precipitation, temperature and soil moisture fields

Dutta Riya, Maity Rajib

Acta Geophysica

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2022

|

Vol. 70, no 3

1401--1415

EN

This study establishes the improvements in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations as compared to its previous version, CMIP5. First, the historical simulations are compared with the reanalysis products from the 5th generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). Quality improvement in CMIP6 is assured through its correspondence with ERA5 in terms of mean, standard deviation and mean bias. Global fields of three hydrometeorological variables, i.e. temperature, precipitation and soil moisture, are considered from multiple General Circulation Models. Among the three variables, maximum improvement is noticed in case of soil moisture followed by precipitation, especially in the tropical belt. In case of temperature, the mean bias has reduced by±3 °C across the parts of North America, Africa, and South Asia. Better reliance on the CMIP6 motivates for a trend analysis to peek into the future. The results indicate a significant increasing trend for precipitation in the temperate, polar and sub-polar regions, whereas a significant increase in temperature is noticed almost all across the world with highest slope in the polar and sub-polar regions. Furthermore, soil moisture shows a significant trend that can be grouped continent-wise, e.g. Africa, Central and South Asia exhibit an increasing trend, whereas North and Central America and Northern parts of South America exhibit an overall decreasing trend. Apart from underlining the better reliance on CMIP6, the findings of this study will also be useful across different parts of the world for many climate related studies using CMIP6.

5

Long-term analysis of air temperatures variability and trends on the Romanian Black Sea Coast

Bosneagu Romeo, Lupu Carmen Elena, Torica Emil, Lupu Sergiu, Vatu Nicolae, Tanase Viorel Mihai, Vasilache Camelia, Daneci-Patrau Daniel, Scurtu Ionut Cristian

Acta Geophysica

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2022

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Vol. 70, no 5

2179--2197

EN

Air temperature is one of the most important parameters that contribute to weather variability over time, being influenced by the flow of solar radiation, the general circulation of currents in the atmosphere relief. The present paper analyzes the minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures in Dobrogea, on the Romanian Black Sea coastal area, aiming to illustrate their evolution, which is a precondition for sustainable development in this region, from the perspective of regional and global climate changes. The weather stations included in this study are Constanta, Mangalia, Gura Portitei, Sfantu Gheorghe, and Sulina. The Pettit Test and the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test were used to determine changes in the evolution of the air temperature. For the period 1990–2020, the analysis of the change points, with a 95% confidence level, shows a particularly interesting situation supporting the general evolution of air temperature at global level. Nonparametric tests including linear regression, Mann–Kendall, and Sen's slope tests were used to analyze trends for monthly, seasonal, and annual series. Results showed an increasing trend in the annual minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures in all five weather stations.

6

Assessment of urbanization impact on urban heat island effect and rainfall for the Surat city

Sharma Arpit, Kale Ganesh D.

Acta Geophysica

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2022

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Vol. 70, no 1

243--264

EN

Population growth and urbanization lead to urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. Urbanization is occurring at a very high rate in the Surat city. Thus, the study of the urbanization impact on the UHI effect for the Surat city is performed in the present study through studying the impact of land use land cover on the land surface temperature of urban and sub-urban areas of the Surat city over the period May 1998 to May 2018. Also, these effects are compared with that of a nearby sub urban taluka Kamrej, which showed that temperature in urban areas is more than that of the sub-urban areas. Aforesaid facts clearly showing the existence of the UHI effect in the Surat city. As urbanization contributes to climate change, its effects on rainfall are studied by comparing rainfall trends of urban and sub-urban areas of the Surat city and nearby sub-urban area Kamrej. Trend analysis showed that trend magnitude values are higher for the urban areas than sub-urban areas, indicating that UHI effect increases rainfall in urban areas. Hotspot analysis is also performed for the Surat city corresponding to May 2018 to recognize hot spots and cold spots. As the Surat city is highly urbanized, thus, hotspots are more than cold spots.

7

Innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM): a case study for precipitation data of Susurluk Basin in Turkey

Ceribasi Gokmen, Ceyhunlu Ahmet Iyad, Ahmed Naveed

Acta Geophysica

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2021

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Vol. 69, no. 4

1465--1480

EN

Throughout the geological history of the earth, there have been many climate changes due to natural and external factors. In the past, the changes in climate were caused by natural causes, and today it is primarily caused by human activities. Besides being diferent climate types, Turkey is among countries that will be afected by climate change induced by global warming. Climate changes in the regions will be afected diferently and degrees due to the country’s surroundings by seas, fragmented topography and orographic features. Trend analysis methods are used in many areas such as on various engi neering, agriculture, environmental and water resources, especially in climate change impact studies resulting from global warming. When data are analyzed with classical trend analysis methods, forward-looking predictions are generally made as low, medium, high, decreasing and increasing. However, risk classes showing changes between available data sets are not known. Innovative Trend Pivot Analysis Method (ITPAM) determines risk classes by establishing a relationship between data. Furthermore, in this method, increasing and decreasing trend regions are separated into fve classes more clearly than classical/traditional trend methods. In this study, Susurluk Basin’s total monthly precipitation data (2006–2017) were analyzed by using ITPAM which the newest trend method. When arithmetic mean analysis results are examined, a signifcant change is observed between frst data set and second data set at two stations (Bandirma and Uludag). When examined at other stations, it is observed that at least one month of almost every station is in 1st degree risk group. When standard deviation analysis results of each station are examined, a signifcant change is observed between frst data set and second data set at many stations. Because while trend class of a point in developed IPTA graph is the medium degree, this point is in 1st risk class in the risk graph.

8

Extreme precipitation indices trend assessment over Thrace region, Turkey

Oruc Sertac, Yalcin Emrah

Acta Geophysica

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2021

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Vol. 69, no. 1

307--321

EN

The frequency and the severity of extreme weather events are increasing globally and will continue to do so in the coming decades as a consequence of our changing climate. Understanding the characteristics of these events is crucial due to their signifcant negative impacts on social, physical and economic environments. In this study, 14 extreme rainfall indices are determined and examined in terms of trends and statistical characteristics for the four meteorological stations located in the Thrace region of Turkey, namely Edirne, Tekirdag, Kirklareli and Sariyer (Istanbul). The results indicate that annual total precipitation has an increasing trend for the Kirklareli and Sariyer stations (z=1.730 and z=2.127) and a decreasing trend for the Edirne and Tekirdag stations (z=− 0.368 and z=− 0.401). However, the precipitation intensity indices (SDII) of all stations show increasing trends that are statistically signifcant for the Edirne and Kirklareli stations. The Kirklareli station tends to have more days with heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall events (z=2.241, z=2.076 and z=1.684, respectively). It is also anticipated that maximum amount of rainfalls in daily and consecutive fve- and ten-day time scales will probably increase at all stations. Moreover, rainfall from very wet days and extremely wet days and fraction of total wet day rainfall that comes from very wet days and extremely wet days indices also show increasing trend tendencies for all stations. The remarkable point is the decreasing total precipitation trend at the Edirne and Tekirdag stations, contrary to the Kirklareli and Sariyer stations, which indicates that the annual total precipitation does not necessarily depend on extreme precipitation for the analyzed period.

9

Evaluation of different gridded precipitation products in trend analysis of precipitation features over Iran

Shobeiri Shahin, Sharafati Ahmad, Neshat Aminreza

Acta Geophysica

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2021

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Vol. 69, no. 3

959--974

EN

In recent years, gridded precipitation products have been widely used in hydrology studies and other felds of water sciences. This study evaluated the potential of several gridded precipitation products, including GPCC, TRMM, CRU, ERA-Interim, and ERA5, in trend analysis of precipitation depth and the number of rainy days in various regions of Iran. Moreover, the observational precipitation data of the daily time series were collected from 68 Iranian synoptic stations. The Mann–Kendall test was conducted to determine gridded and observed precipitation trends in the period of 1997 to 2017. The probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) indices were utilized to compare gridded and observed precipitation trends. Results showed that the best consistency (POD: 52% ~ 80%, FAR: 60% ~ 88%) was observed between the observed trends of the number of rainy days and those obtained by TRMM product over different regions of Iran. Moreover, ERA-Interim ofered a better performance (POD: 50% ~ 100%, FAR: 58% ~ 72%) in the trend analysis of precipitation depth in Iran. The consistency between observational and gridded precipitation trends has never been analyzed in Iran at this level; therefore, this is considered a unique analysis. Besides, the generated maps of precipitation products’ performance provide a comprehensive view of better water resources management over different regions of Iran.

10

Seasonality shift and streamfow fow variability trends in central India

Kuriqi Alban, Ali Rawshan, Pham Quoc Bao, Montenegro Gambini Julio, Gupta Vivek, Malik Anurag, Linh Nguyen Thi Thuy, Joshi Yogesh, Anh Duong Tran, Nam Thai Van, Dong Xiaohua

Acta Geophysica

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2020

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Vol. 68, no. 5

1461--1475

EN

A better understanding of intra/inter-annual streamfow variability and trends enables more efective water resources planning and management for current and future needs. This paper investigates the variability and trends of streamfow data from fve stations (i.e. Ashti, Chindnar, Pathgudem, Polavaram, and Tekra) in Godavari river basin, India. The streamfow data were obtained from the Indian Central Water Commission and cover more than 30 years of mean daily records (i.e. 1972–2011). The streamfow data were statistically assessed using Gamma, Generalised Extreme Value and Normal distributions to under stand the probability distribution features of data at inter-annual time-scale. Quantifable changes in observed streamfow data were identifed by Sen’s slope method. Two other nonparametric, Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis methods were also applied to validate fndings from Sen’s slope trend analysis. The mean fow discharge for each month (i.e. January to December), seasonal variation (i.e. Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter) as well as an annual mean, annual maximum and minimum fows were analysed for each station. The results show that three stations (i.e. Ashti, Tekra, and Polavaram) demonstrate an increasing trend, notably during Winter and Spring. In contrast, two other stations (i.e. Pathgudem, Chindnar) revealed a decreasing trend almost at all seasons. A signifcant decreasing trend was observed at all station over Summer and Autumn seasons. Notably, all stations showed a decreasing trend in maximum fows; remarkably, Tekra station revealed the highest decreasing magnitude. Signifcant decrease in minimum fows was observed in two stations only, Chindnar and Pathgudem. Findings resulted from this study might be useful for water managers and decision-makers to propose more sustainable water management recommendations and practices.

11

Ocena stabilności stężeń siarkowodoru w wodach leczniczych ze „Zdroju Głównego” w Krzeszowicach

Rusiniak P., Plata J., Wątor K., Kmiecik E.

Technika Poszukiwań Geologicznych

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2017

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R. 56, nr 1

75--87

PL

Siarczkowe wody lecznicze w Krzeszowicach eksploatowane są z przerwami od 1780 roku. Wykorzystywane są wyłącznie w hydroterapii (kąpiele lecznicze). Od 2002 roku badania właściwości fizykochemicznych wód realizowane są przez akredytowane Laboratorium Hydrogeochemiczne Katedry Hydrogeologii i Geologii Inżynierskiej Wydziału Geologii, Geofizyki i Ochrony Środowiska AGH w Krakowie. W niniejszej pracy przedstawiono ocenę stabilności stężeń siarkowodoru, będącego składnikiem swoistym omawianej wody. Wykorzystano wyniki analiz 102 próbek wody pobranych w latach 2008–2016. Baza danych hydrogeochemicznych została zweryfikowana przy użyciu testów statystycznych i błędów liczonych wg bilansu jonowego. Ocenę stabilności przeprowadzono na podstawie kart kontrolnych pojedynczych pomiarów. Zasadnicza większość stężeń H2S mieści się w przedziale x±2σ (średnia + 2xodchylenie standardowe), zatem stężenie tego składnika należy uznać za stabilne w czasie. Z przeprowadzonej za pomocą programu GWSDAT analizy trendów wynika, że stężenie siarkowodoru nie wykazuje istotnie statystycznego trendu monotonicznego.

EN

The exploitation of sulphurous water in Krzeszowice has been taking place since 1780. The water is being used only for balneological treatment. The quality of this water has been controlled by Department of Hydrogeology and Geology Engineering (AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection) since 2002. A detailed analysis of the hydrogen sulphide concentration was performed in this paper. The analysis is based on the result of 102 samples collected between 2008–2016. The box-and-whisker plot was used to assess the data differentiation. Two outliers observations were eliminated from further analysis. The Shapiro-Wilk test indicated that the data is normally distributed. The control chart was used to assess the stability of the examined hydrogen sulphide. This assessment shows that most of the values are in range x±2σ, so the concentration of hydrogen sulphide in curative water from „Zdrój Główny” may be classified as stable. The analysis performed using GWSDAT software shows that the trend is not detected.

12

Ocena stanu technicznego maszyn górniczych w oparciu o kryterium rozkładu Weibulla

Korbiel T., Biały W., Czerwiński S.

Systemy Wspomagania w Inżynierii Produkcji

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2016

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z. 1 (13)

639--654

PL

W eksploatacji maszyn i urządzeń jednym z najważniejszych parametrów jest stan dynamiczny obiektu. Najbardziej popularną metodą oceny stanu dynamicznego jest obserwacja procesów resztkowych. W szczególności, dynamiczne procesy resztkowe są nośnikiem informacji diagnostycznej. Pomiar drgań i hałasu pracujących maszyn dostarcza wiedzy na temat dynamiki ocenianej maszyny. Wieloletnia wiedza i doświadczenie pozwoliły na stworzenie procedur diagnostycznych. W większości maszyn stosowanych w przemyśle, procedury zapisane w normach ISO 10816 i ISO 7919 pozwalają na skuteczną diagnostykę oraz optymalne zarządzanie eksploatacją maszyn. Stosowalność tych norm jest bardzo duża, jednak występują maszyny, których parametry uniemożliwiają ich stosowalność. Do takich maszyn można zaliczyć niektóre maszyny stosowane w górnictwie podziemnym. W ocenie diagnostycznej kombajnów górniczych, przenośników zgrzebłowych, jak i innych maszyn będących w ciągu technologicznym, zastosowanie stref oceny zgodnych z norami ISO 10816 i ISO 7919 jest niepoprawne. W ocenie diagnostycznej tego typu maszyn najczęściej korzysta się z analizy trendów długoczasowych. Wyznaczenie dopuszczalnych poziomów drgań uzyskiwane są na drodze heurystycznej poprzez obserwacje rozwoju uszkodzenia do stanu awaryjnego. W artykule zaprezentowano metodykę oceny stanu maszyny wykorzystującą modele degradacji urządzeń, oparte o rozkład Weibulla. Opracowaną metodykę zastosowano do rzeczywistych wyników pomiaru drgań maszyn dołowych w jednej z kopalni węgla kamiennego. Przeprowadzone analizy wskazały dużą skuteczność prezentowanej metodyki.

EN

In exploitation of machines one of the prior parameter is dynamic condition of an object. The most popular method of giving results about dynamic condition is observation of residual processes. Especially dynamic residual processes are carriers of diagnostic information. measurements of vibration and noise of working machines provide knowledge about dynamics of a evaluated machine. Long-term knowledge and experience allowed to create diagnostic procedures. In mostly devices created in industry, procedures are written in standards ISO 10816 and ISO 7919 which allows effective diagnostic and optimal management of devices. Applicability of this standards is most popular, but there also appear devices which parameters forbid their applicability. To this devices can qualify some of used in underground mining. Giving a diagnostic mark for a longwall shearers, scraper conveyors and many of the others devices being in technological sequence, application of mark spheres compatible with ISO 10816 and ISO 7919 is incorrect. In diagnostic evaluation this kind of a machine we usually use analysis long time trends. Determination acceptable levels of vibrations are getting in heuristicway, by observation a development of a damage to an emergency state. In article there is presented methodology of giving a diagnostic mark about machines which uses models of degradations of a device, based on Weibull analysis. Presented method were used to gave real marks of vibration machinery and equipment for underground mining in one of the coalmine. Conduction of analysis showed a more effectiveness of a presented methodology.

13

Ocena stabilności składu chemicznego wód termalnych ujmowanych otworem Bańska PGP-1 w Bańskiej Niżnej, Podhale

Kmiecik E., Korzec K.

Przegląd Geologiczny

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2015

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Vol. 63, nr 10/1

830--833

EN

This paper presents an analysis of trends in the chemical composition of thermal waters exploited by Bańska PGP-1 well. Trends have been assessed for major ions (SOM4 2–, Cl –, Na+, Ca 2+), which determine the hydrogeochemical type of water. Assessment of trends was performed using GWSDAT software, using the results of the chemical composition conducted in the years 2001–2014. This assessment shows that the chemical composition of thermal water from Bańska PGP-1 can be classified as stable.

14

Analiza trendów zmian składu chemicznego wód leczniczych z ujęcia b-13 w Busku-Zdroju z wykorzystaniem programu GWSDAT

Wątor K., Kmiecik E.

Przegląd Geologiczny

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2015

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Vol. 63, nr 10/2

1125--1130

EN

Curative water is the groundwater characterized by natural variation of physical and chemical parameters (Ustawa, 2011). Curative character valuation for natural resource (including curative water) should be made on the basis of documented investigations continuing at least three years (Rozporządzenie, 2006). Analysis of stability of chemical composition should also involve trend analysis. When trend is detected it could threaten the loss of the curative properties of water. In this paper authors present analysis of trends in chemical composition of therapeutic water from B-13 Anna intake (Busko-Zdrój region). The type of these water is chloridesodium, sulfide, iodide [Cl–Na, H2S, I]. The 33 results of chemical composition analysis were used in trend analysis. All these analysis were performed in years 1983–2012. Trend analysis was performed with use of GWSDAT software (Jones & Spence, 2013).

15

Long-term air temperature and precipitation variability in the Warta River catchment area

Ilnicki P., Farat R., Górecki K., Lewandowski P.

Journal of Water and Land Development

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2015

|

no. 27

3--13

EN

The variability of the mean annual air temperature and precipitation totals in three periods: 1848–2010, 1951–2010 and 1981–2010 was investigated in the large Warta River basin, being the area with lowest rainfall in Poland. For the purposes of research, nine meteorological stations with the longest measurement series were selected. Air temperature increase in this river basin was similar than in neighbouring countries. In the last 30 years this trend kept increasing. The precipitation in the whole studied period was slightly increasing in the northern part of the Warta River basin, but decreasing in the southern part. The mean annual precipitation totals in the catchment area did not change visible. In the period 1981–2010, the precipitation totals show a small increase in the winter and spring and a decrease in summer. A negative influence of this climate change was not visible in the Warta River discharge. The main objectives of this study were the collection long-term records of air temperature and precipitation in the Warta River basin, and the statistical analysis of climate variability.

PL

W zlewni rzeki Warty, położonej w rejonie o najniższych w Polsce opadach atmosferycznych, analizowano zmienność średnich rocznych wartości temperatury i sum opadów w latach 1848–2010, 1951–2010 i 1981–2010. W tym celu wykorzystano dane z dziewięciu stacji meteorologicznych dysponujących najdłuższymi seriami pomiarowymi. Głównym celem tych badań było zebranie wieloletnich danych dotyczących temperatury powietrza i sumy opadów atmosferycznych w zlewni Warty i statystyczna analiza ich zmienności. Temperatura powietrza wzrastała w tej zlewni w podobny sposób, jak w sąsiednich krajach. W ostatnich 30 latach zaobserwowano nasilenie się tego trendu. Opady atmosferyczne w całym badanym okresie nieco wzrosły w północnej i zmalały w południowej części zlewni, ale średnia roczna suma opadów w całej zlewni nie zmieniła się istotnie. W latach 1981–2010 roczna suma opadów nieco wzrastała zimą i wiosną oraz malała latem. W średnich rocznych przepływach Warty negatywny wpływ tych zmian nie był widoczny.

16

Development of the trends in Czech spas, with an accent on Russian spa clients

Pellešová P., Kostková M.

Geotourism / Geoturystyka

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2015

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nr 1-2

55--61

EN

The Czech spa has a rich history and is based on the use of natural medicinal resources, with a significant share of direct medical care coupled with a comprehensive approach to treatment admissions. The trends set in Czech spas are affected more and more by foreign clients, which compensates for shortfalls of the domestic clientele. Russian guests are one of the most important groups of the Czech spa clientele. The article discusses the development of trends in Czech spas, with an accent on the Russian spa clientele. Trend analysis was carried out using the method of scenarios, where opinions of experts are compared with the results of surveys.

PL

Uzdrowiska w Czechach mają bogatą historię. Ich działalność opiera się na wykorzystaniu zasobów naturalnych surowców leczniczych i zastosowaniu bezpośredniej opieki medycznej w połączeniu z kompleksowym podejściem do zabiegów. Tendencje rozwojowe uzdrowisk w Czechach są w coraz większym stopniu wyznaczane przez klientów zagranicznych, których przyjazdy rekompensują spadek liczby klientów krajowych. Jedną z najważniejszych grup klientów w uzdrowiskach czeskich są Rosjanie. W artykule przedyskutowano tendencje rozwojowe uzdrowisk w Czechach z naciskiem na skutki obecności klienteli rosyjskiej. Do analizy trendów zastosowano metodę scenariuszy, w której opinie ekspertów porównywane są z wynikami sondaży.

17

Spatial Differentiation of Water Quality Between Reservoirs Under Anthropogenic and Natural Factors Based on Statistical Approach

Boyacioglu H.

Archives of Environmental Protection

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2014

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Vol. 40, no. 1

41--50

EN

This study illustrates the benefits of statistical techniques to analyze spatial and temporal variations in water quality. In this scope water quality differentiation caused by anthropogenic and natural factors in the Tahtali and Balçova reservoirs in western Turkey was investigated using discriminant analysis-DA, Mann Whitney U techniques. Effectiveness of pollution prevention measures was analyzed by Mann Kendall and Sen’s Slope estimator methods. The water quality variables were divided into three groups as physical-inorganic, organic and inorganic pollution parameters for the study. Results showed that water quality between reservoirs was differentiated for “physical-inorganic” and “organic pollution” parameters. Degree of influence of water quality by urbanization was higher in the Tahtali reservoir and in general, no trend detection at pollution indicators explained by effective management practices at both sites.

18

Analiza wybranych wskaźników jako przyczyn wypadków drogowych

Zalewski J

Zeszyty Naukowe Instytutu Pojazdów / Politechnika Warszawska

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2013

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z. 2/93

123--132

PL

W artykule zaprezentowano wyniki kontynuacji analiz z pracy, poruszono wybrane aspekty przyczyn wypadków drogowych i zwrócono uwagę na możliwości prowadzenia szczegółowych analiz w tej tematyce. Powstawanie wypadków drogowych nie musi wiązać się z relacjami występującymi bezpośrednio pomiędzy pojazdami, a wydaje się oczywistym uwzględnienie wpływu otoczenia. Poruszono też istotny problem systematycznego i konsekwentnego gromadzenia danych o wypadkach.

EN

In this paper the results of the continuation of analysis discussed in are presented as well as selected aspects concerning the causes of road accidents. Attention was paid to the possibilities of conducting detailed analysis on this research area. Occurrence of road accidents does not have to be connected with relationships directly between motor vehicles, and it seems obvious that the influence of environment should be included. Also an important issue of systematic and consistent data collection about accidents is mentioned.

19

Modelowanie procesów decyzyjnych w finansach i zarządzaniu innowacjami

Jamróg A., Skulimowski A. M. J.

Pomiary Automatyka Robotyka

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2011

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R. 15, nr 12

249-251

PL

W artykule przedstawiamy wybrane zagadnienia z zakresu modelowania informacji finansowej i wspierania innowacji, które należą do obszaru zainteresowań badawczych Studenckiego Koła Naukowego Modelowania w Finansach przy Katedrze Automatyki AGH. Możliwość poddania swoich pomysłów innowacyjnych ocenie doświadczonych ekspertów-praktyków może pomóc studentom i pracownikom uczelni w wyborze strategii rozwoju własnych firm. Nowe podejście do oceny ryzyka innowacji w informatyce oparte na symulacji przyszłych przepływów pieniężnych i analizie opcji rzeczywistych przyczyni się do rozwoju odpowiedzialnej przedsiębiorczości. Przedstawimy też zestaw zaawansowanych narzędzi wyszukiwania sieciowego zintegrowanych z bibliograficznymi i patentowymi bazami danych. Ułatwiają one inteligentne filtrowanie informacji, a następnie ekstrakcję trendów technologicznych i wykorzystanie wiedzy przy wspomaganiu decyzji inwestycyjnych. Te badania uhonorowane zostały 1. nagrodą XLVIII Sesji Studenckich Kół Naukowych AGH w 2011 r. - Sekcja Przedsiębiorczości, Jakości, Zarządzania i Finansów.

EN

This paper shows the historical development and recent research results in financial information modelling and innovation support that has been carried out at the Financial Modelling Student Scientific Organisation affiliated at the Chair of Automatic Control, AGH University of Science and Technology. A new approach to the risk assessment of innovative IT investment can help students' start-ups as well as university spin-off and spin-outs to select an optimal investment strategy. Further, we present an automatic webcrawler that allows to supply updated bibliographic and patent information in real time. The latter contribution of the Organisation's members has been honored with the 1st price at the 2011'AGH University's student competition. The future plans and development prospects will also be presented.

20

Analiza trendów w organizacji transportu ładunków skonteneryzowanych i tocznych w Regionie Basenu Morza Bałtyckiego

Montwiłł A.

Logistyka

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2011

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nr 6

PL

W publikacji zostały zaprezentowane trendy w organizacji lądowo-morskich łańcuchów transportowych ładunków skonteneryzowanych i tocznych realizowanych w Regionie Basenu Morza Bałtyckiego. Jest on akwenem o znacznym udziale przewozów ładunków w systemie żeglugi regularnej, w ramach której realizowane są bardzo duże przewozy ładunków skonteneryzowanych i tocznych. Celem publikacji jest przedstawienie znaczenia wymienionych kategorii ładunkowych w wymianie handlowej państw nadbałtyckich zarówno w układzie światowym jak i wewnątrz unijnym. Kierunki rozwoju transportu ładunków podatnych na skonteneryzowanie i ładunków tocznych wskazują, że ich lądowo-morskie łańcuchy transportowe w coraz większym stopniu będą miały charakter przewozów w systemie multimodalnym z wykorzystaniem techniki transportu intermodalnego i kombinowanego a procesom konteneryzacji będzie podlegać coraz więcej ładunków. Przeprowadzoną analizę trendów w zakresie organizacji transportu ładunków skonteneryzowanych i tocznych w obrębie Regionu Morza Bałtyckiego zobrazowano na przykładach portów Zatoki Gdańskiej, w odniesieniu do obrotów kontenerowych i portu w Lubece, w odniesieniu do ładunków tocznych.

EN

The publication was presented trends in the organization of land-sea transport chains large containers and Ro-Ro Mobile units cargo in the Baltic Sea. The sea is a reservoir with a very large share of freight in the system of regular shipping, within which are carried out a very high large container and Ro-Ro Mobile units cargo. The aim of the publication to present the importance of these categories cargo in the Baltic countries to trade both in the world and inside the EU. Direction of development of transport cargo open to large containers and Ro-Ro Mobile units show that their land-sea transport chains will be multimodal transport system character using the techniques of intermodal and containerization process will be more and more cargo. Conducted an analysis of trends in organization large containers and Ro-Ro Mobile units cargo around the BSR is described in the examples, the Gulf of Gdansk ports for large containers cargo and port of Lübeck for Ro-Ro Mobile units cargo.