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Analiza ryzyka dla transportu drogowego towarów niebezpiecznych stwarzających zagrożenie wybuchem

Pająk M., Madej M., Ozimina D.

Bezpieczeństwo i Technika Pożarnicza

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2017

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Vol. 48, iss. 4

54--69

PL

Cel: W artykule opisano metodykę analizy ryzyka grupowego dla transportu drogowego towarów niebezpiecznych stwarzających zagrożenie wybuchem. Projekt i metody: Do określenia poziomu ryzyka związanego z transportem drogowym towarów niebezpiecznych stwarzających zagrożenie wybuchem zastosowano dane przestrzenne obejmujące swym zasięgiem obszar całej Polski. Do przetworzenia wyżej wymienionych danych wykorzystano oprogramowanie GIS oraz bazę danych PostgreSQL z nakładką Postgis. Analiza ryzyka została opracowana w oparciu o matrycę, której składowymi były: analiza prawdopodobieństwa wystąpienia wypadku oraz jego skutków dla społeczeństwa zamieszkującego wokół dróg krajowych. W analizie prawdopodobieństwa uwzględniono: dotychczasowe miejsca występowania wypadków z udziałem towarów niebezpiecznych stwarzających zagrożenie wybuchem (w latach 2010–2015), przestrzenne rozmieszczenie parkingów ze stanowiskami dla pojazdów przewożących towary niebezpieczne, stan nawierzchni dróg krajowych oraz parametr określający kolizyjność lub bezkolizyjność tych dróg. Przedstawiono również metodykę dotyczącą sposobu selekcji akcji w transporcie drogowym z udziałem autocystern przewożących towary niebezpieczne stwarzające zagrożenie wybuchem. Omówiono także statystykę wyżej wymienionych wypadków. W analizie skutków uwzględniono szczegółową gęstość zaludnienia wokół dróg krajowych w promieniu do 1000 metrów. Analizy zostały wykonane indywidualnie dla każdego odcinka drogi krajowej o długości do 1 km. Ich etapy zostały zwizualizowane w formie map, które obejmują swym zasięgiem wszystkie drogi krajowe w Polsce. Wyniki: Na podstawie przeprowadzonych badań określono poziom ryzyka grupowego związanego z transportem towarów niebezpiecznych stwarzających zagrożenie wybuchem dla wszystkich odcinków dróg krajowych. Wyniki przeprowadzonych badań mogą być pomocne w bardziej świadomym planowaniu tras przewozu tego typu towarów niebezpiecznych. Wnioski: We wnioskach przedstawionych w artykule opisano działania mające na celu obniżenie ryzyka związanego z transportem drogowym towarów niebezpiecznych. Uwzględniono w nich również rekomendacje mające na celu optymalizację metodyki, na bazie której została opracowana analiza ryzyka.

EN

Objective: This paper describes the methodology for analysing the societal risk involved in road transport of dangerous goods. Project and methods: Spatial data covering the whole territory of Poland were used to determine the level of risk involved in the transport of dangerous goods by road. The GIS software and PostgreSQL database with a POSTGIS extension were employed to process this data. The risk analysis was based on a matrix which included an accident-likelihood assessment and a consequence assessment for communities living near national roads. The likelihood assessment included the recorded locations of accidents involving explosive dangerous goods (in the years 2010–2015), the spatial distribution of parking areas with spaces intended for vehicles carrying explosive dangerous goods, the condition of pavements on national roads and whether these roads have partial or no grade separation, or full grade separation. The paper also presents a methodology for the selection of fire-service operations involving tanker lorries carrying explosive dangerous goods. The statistics of the abovementioned accidents are also discussed. The consequence assessment takes into account the specific population density around national roads within a radius of up to 1,000 meters. The assessments were undertaken individually for each national-road section with a length of up to 1 km. The individual stages of these assessments were visualised as maps covering all national roads in Poland. Results: The study has established the level of societal risk associated with the transport of explosive dangerous goods for all national-road sections. The results of the study could help to make better-informed planning decisions regarding dangerous-goods routes. Conclusions: In the conclusions section, the paper describes the measures to mitigate the societal risk associated with road transport of dangerous goods. The conclusions also include recommendations to optimise the methodology used in the risk analysis.

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Calibration of characteristic values of soil properties using the random finite element method

Zaskórski Ł., Puła W.

Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering

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2016

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Vol. 16, no. 1

112--124

EN

In this paper the reliability assessment of the shallow strip footing was conducted using a reliability index β. Therefore some approaches of evaluation of characteristic values of soil properties were compared in order to check what reliability index β can be achieved by applying each of them. For this purpose, design values of the bearing capacity based on these approaches were referred to design values of the bearing capacity estimated by the random finite element method. Design values of the bearing capacity were estimated for various widths and depths of foundation in conjunction with design approaches defined in Eurocode 7. The cohesive soil was considered – clay from the area of Wrocław. The characteristic values of shear strength parameters were evaluated basing on the effective values of soil parameters.

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The strategy of training staff for a new type of helicopter as an element of raising the security level of flight operations

Gałązkowski R., Wołkowski W., Mikos M., Szajda S., Wejnarski A., Świeżewski S. P.

International Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics

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2015

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Vol. 21, No. 4

558--567

EN

In 2008, the Polish Medical Air Rescue started replacing its fleet with modern EC135 machines. To ensure the maximum possible safety of the missions performed both in the period of implementing the change and later on, the management prepared a strategy of training its crews to use the new type of helicopter. The analysis of incidents that occurred during 2006–2009 showed that both the human and the technical factors must be carefully considered. Moreover, a risk analysis was conducted to reduce the risk both during general crew training and in the course of particular flight operations. A four-stage strategy of training pilots and crew members was worked out by weighing up all the risks. The analysis of data from 2010 to 2013 confirmed that the risk connected with flying and with all the activities involved in direct support aircraft operations is under control and lowered to an acceptable level.

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Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem

Alizadeh S. S., Mortazavi S. B., Sepehri M. M.

International Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics

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2015

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Vol. 21, No. 4

551--557

EN

Aim: Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. Methods: We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. Results: With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥50 years old, married, with 1–5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. Conclusion: The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

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Future generation of railway control systems for regional lines including new telematic solutions

Lewiński A., Łukasik Z., Perzyński T., Ukleja P.

Archives of Transport System Telematics

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2014

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Vol. 7, iss. 3

13--16

EN

The paper deals with implementation problem of new generation of railway control and management systems dedicated for regional lines. The special infrastructure of such lines gives the possibility of application the new telematic technologies including the open radio transmission standards to control and monitoring the dissipated railway objects. In the paper the efficiency and safety analyses are presented based on stochastic process approach according to UE standards and recommendations.

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The durability prediction of deteriorating reinforced concrete members

Lukoseviciene O., Kudzys A.

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Rzeszowskiej. Budownictwo i Inżynieria Środowiska

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2009

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z. 53 [265]

109-118

EN

The features of durability prediction and concepts of time-dependent reliability analysis of deteriorating reinforced concrete structures subjected to extreme gravity and lateral actions as rectangular pulse renewal processes are discussed. New methodological approaches to a time-dependent survival probability analysis and durability prediction of reinforced concrete members are considered. The safety margin of particular members is modeled as a random finite sequence. The effect of coincident recurrent extreme actions on their survival probabilities is analyzed. The instantaneous and long-term survival probabilities of particular and structural members of deteriorating structures are considered. It is recommended to calculate these probabilities by the unsophisticated analytical method of transformed conditional probabilities. The technical service life as a quantitative durability parameter of deteriorating structural members is studied.

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Analiza algorytmu sekwencyjnego dla zadania pakowania

Horzelski W.

Metody Informatyki Stosowanej

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2009

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nr 1 (18)

29-39

EN

The bin-packing problem in the classical approach is to arrange the list of tasks L={a1,a2,...an} of a size not exceeding 1 in the minimum number of bins of size 1, however, that none of the bins was overloaded. In dual version we need to maximized number of bins, assuming that all of them must be fully loaded (1 or more). Among the ways to do such a task is a class of sequential algorithms. From sequential algorithm is required in addition to pack the tasks in such a way that tasks placed in each container (bin) consisted of a sequence: [wzór]. In this paper is an example of sequential algorithm called S1k and carried out a full analysis of its behavior. It demonstrate the value of lower bound for efficiency factor of the algorithm [wzór] and a bound of asymptotic waste ratio of ...[wzór]. Paper presents result of the algorithm with list of tasks uniformly distributed on the (0.1]. Shows that its computational complexity is O(n) and carried out a comparison with the results achieved by the algorithm DNF.

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Zmienność na obszarze Polski postaci funkcji rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa przepływu minimalnego w roku

Jarosińska E.

Czasopismo Techniczne. Środowisko

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2003

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R. 100, z. 1-Ś

147--157

EN

Identification of probability distributions of minimum discharges at fifty cross-sections on Polish rivers is presented in this paper. Three distributions: log-normal, Pearson type III and Weibul were taken into consideration. Their parameters were estimated by two methods: method of moments and the maximum likelihood method. Initial verification was achieved by the [lambda] Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Selection of the best distribution was made based on the maximum log-likelihood value principle. The results were illustrated on the map of Poland. They showed that certain homogeneous areas of distributions appeared. The area of the upper Vistula river basin, middle and lower Odra basin and middle Warta and Noteć rivers are dominated by the Pearson type III distribution. Log-normal distribution prevails on the Bug river and its tributaries, lower Warta and lower Vistula rivers, while the Weibull distribution can be found both in the south and in the north of Poland. However, it should be stressed that the results obtained do not give basis good enough for more general conclusions and practical applications and further extensive research is required.