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1 2011

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Niepewność identyfikacji i wyznaczenia ryzyka w metodzie analizy Risk Score

Smolarkiewicz M. M.

Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej

2011

Nr 41

107--118

W niniejszym artykule przedstawiono metodologię identyfikacji i wyznaczania niepewności ryzyka w metodzie analizy ryzyka Risk Score. Wnioskowanie poparte zostało przykładami obliczeniowymi.

In this article the methodology of identification and calculation of risk uncertainty in the Risk Score method was introduced. To adapt the Risk Score method, found in 1976 by Kinney and Wiruth, to reality of 2010 year, few changes to methodology had to be made. Inflation of USD from 1976 to 2010 and rate of exchange (USD to PLN) have been taken into account. The exposure time from Risk Score method was estimated by exposure frequency. The power dependence of probability, exposure frequency and material losses coefficients on correspondent measured parameters were analyzed. The uncertainty of risk calculated by Risk Score method was estimated. Analyses and calculations were based on analytical examples. Calculations shown that even 5−10% uncertainties of probability of unfavorable event, potential losses and exposure time (frequency) result in 10-11% uncertainty of risk determined by Risk Score method. This may cause underestimation or overestimation of risk, especially in events for which calculated risk value is near the border value of tiled risk intervals in Risk Score method.