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1 2023

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An empirical study of air transport demand forecast in Nigeria

Nwaogbe Obioma R., Monday Adebayo, Wokili-Yakubu Huwa

Journal of Sustainable Development of Transport and Logistics

2023

Vol. 8, No. 1

6--23

The study aims to estimate the air travel demand forecast for domestic passengers' travels in Nigeria from 2002-2016. Data resourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria. The study utilized a multiple regression model using a Stata-Graphic software solver to analyze the data. From the analysis, the result shows that there is a significant relationship between the explanatory variable (passengers) and unexplanatory variables National Disposable Income, Population, Average Airfare, Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, Total Expenditure, and Crude oil price, accounted for adjusted R of 93.624% relationship with demand for domestic air travel of passenger. The R-square statistic shows that the fitted model explains the variability in the number of passengers (NPAX), which is 96.8124%. The Hypothesis testing reveals that National Disposable Income and Airfare have a strong statistically significant relationship with the demand for domestic air travel with a P-value of 0.0013. Mores, a statistically significant relationship exists between National Disposable Income, Average airfare, and Crude oil price with P-values of 0.0017 and 0.0445, respectively. Furthermore, a forecast of the number of passengers and average airfare was carried out using ARIMA (1,0,0) model, which made available the future predicted values for the number of passenger movements and average airfare for the next 10-12 years to come. Thus, the study recommends that stakeholders in the air transport sector should work towards improving the capacity and infrastructure to accommodate the growth of air travel demand for domestic air travel in Nigeria. Policy implications were made on regulating the sector by having a good pricing policy to control the air fare for the industry.