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Modelling of solute transport in rivers under different fflow rates: A case study without transient storage

Romanowicz R.J., Osuch M., Wallis S.

Acta Geophysica

2013

Vol. 61, no. 1

98--125

A methodology to derive solute transport models at any flow rate is presented. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the assessment of uncertainty of predictions that incorporate parameterisation based on flow rate. A simple treatment of un certainty takes in to account hetero- scedastic modelling errors related to tracer experiments performed over a range of flow rates, as well as the uncertainty of the observed flow rates themselves. The proposed approach is illustrated using two models for the transport of a conservative solute: a physically based, deterministic, advection-dispersion model (ADE), and a stochastic, transfer function based, active mixing volume model (AMV). For both models the uncertainty of any parameter increases with increasing flow rate (reflecting the heteroscedastic treatment of modelling errors at different observed flow rates), but in contrast the uncertainty of travel time, computed from the predicted model parameters, was found to decrease with increasing flow rate.