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Development of models to study traffic accidents on the final sections of access roads to the cities: a case study of three major Iranian cities

Fallah Tafti Mehdi, Roshani Reza

Archives of Transport

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2021

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Vol. 59, iss. 3

129--148

EN

The final sections of main access roads to the cities require especial attention as the frequency of accidents in these road sections are considerably higher than other parts of interurban roads. These road sections operate as an interface between the rural roads and urban streets. The previous researches available on this subject are limited and they have also mainly focused on a narrow range of factors contributing to the accidents in these areas. The main contribution of this research is to consider a relatively comprehensive range of potential factors , and to examine their impacts through the development and comparison of both conventional probabilistic models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. For this purpose, information related to the main access roads of three major Iranian cities were collected. This information consisted of accident frequency data together with the field observations of traffic characteristics, roadway conditions and roadside features of these roads. Various ANN and probabilistic models were developed. The frequency of accidents, i.e. fatal, injured, or damaged accidents, was considered as the output of the developed models. The results indicated that a hybrid of ANN models, each comprised of 10 input variables representing traffic, roadway and roadside conditions, outperformed several probabilistic models, i.e. Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero-truncated Poisson, and Zero-truncated Negative Binomial models, also developed under similar conditions in this study. Moreover, effective roadway width, roadway lighting condition, the standard deviation of vehicles speed, percentage of drivers violating the speed limit, average annual daily traffic, percentage of heavy goods vehicles, the density of roadside commercial and industrial land uses, the density of median U-turns, the density of local access roads, and the effective width of the left-side shoulder were identified as the most effective factors contributing to the accidents in these areas. The developed ANN model can be used as a tool to predict accident rates in these road sections, and to estimate a potential reduction in the accident rates, following any improvements in the major factors contributing to the traffic accidents in these areas.

2

Evaluating the safety performance of roundabouts

Alshannaq Mo'ath, Imam Rana

Transport Problems

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2020

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T. 15, z. 1

141--152

EN

The use of roundabouts is well recognized for sustaining an efficient and safe intersection. However, the safety results may vary based on the prevailing conditions. Therefore, this study assesses the safety performance of roundabouts in Jordan. This study developed a predictive model by collecting and analyzing all accident records of 12 major urban roundabouts in the country over 3 years. For developing the model, this study employed an accident frequency analysis. The model calculated the rate of accidents and incorporated the geometric and operational characteristics of roundabouts. This was followed by ranking the safety performance of the roundabouts. It was concluded that driver behavior of violating the traffic rules, lack of clear lane markings in the circulating area and inadequate signage at the roundabouts entries are the main causes of roundabout accidents. The research recommends including the developed predictive model in future traffic control and planning studies, for identifying hazardous locations, or for prioritizing roundabout improvements based on safety performance.

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Choice of Functional Form for Independent Variables in Accident Prediction Models

Kamińska J.

Logistics and Transport

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2014

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Vol. 21, No. 1

51--62

EN

The development of multivariate statistical models to identify factors that explain systematic variation in accident counts has been an active field of research in the past 20 years. During this period many different models and functional forms have been applied. This study, based on data for national roads in Norway, tests alternative functional forms of the relationship between independent variables and the number of injury accidents. The paper compares six different functional forms (sets of independent variables and specifications of the form of their relationship to accident occurrence) by means of Poisson-lognormal regression. The best model was identified in terms of five goodness of fit measures and a graphical method – the CURE plot (CURE = cumulative residuals). The coefficients estimated for the independent variables were found to vary according to functional form. It is therefore important to compare different functional forms as part of an exploratory analysis when developing accident prediction models.

4

Problematyka wypadków drogowych z uwzględnieniem cech nawierzchni drogi

Jaździk-Osmólska A.

Drogownictwo

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2012

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nr 6

214-218

PL

Badania dotyczące przyczyn wypadków drogowych i próby ich przewidywania są jednymi z głównych elementów polityki na rzecz poprawy bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego. Podstawą rozwoju prac badawczych jest niewątpliwie dostępność do baz danych o okolicznościach zdarzeń drogowych, w tym m.in. na temat stanu technicznego drogi. W artykule zaprezentowano zastosowanie modeli predykcji wypadków drogowych, w skrócie politykę UE w zakresie ich modelowania oraz możliwości badawcze, jakie daje dostępność w Polsce sprzętu diagnostycznego do badania m.in. cech nawierzchni.

EN

One of the main element of european policy to improve road safety is research into the causes of road accidents and construction of accident pediction models. The basis for the development of safety research is access to road accidents database including circumstances of road accidents, for example: road pavement properties. The article presents the used prediction models, in short, the EU's road accident modeling and availibility in Poland modern diagnostic equipment to examine road pavement properties for research accident prediction models.

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Badania czynników wpływających na bezpieczeństwo ruchu na przejściach dróg tranzytowych przez miejscowości

Kieć M.

Drogownictwo

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2012

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nr 4

116-120

PL

Przedstawiono wpływy wybranych czynników związanych z drogą, zagospodarowaniem otoczenia drogi i dostępnością do niej na bezpieczeństwo ruchu na odcinkach przejść drogowych przez miejscowości. Zdefiniowano wskaźniki opisujące te czynniki, jako zmienne skalarne. Na podstawie zbudowanych modeli wypadkowych wyselekcjonowano statystycznie istotne zmienne niezależne i skwantyfikowano ich wpływ na bezpieczeństwo ruchu.

EN

The paper presents the impact of selected factors related to road, road surroundings development and access on road safety on roads through built-up areas. The author defined the indicators describing these factors as scalar variables. On the basis of constructed of accident prediction models statistically essential independent variables were selected. In paper impact of selected factors on road safety on roads through built-up areas was quantified.