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Earthquake prediction assessment using VLF radio signal sounding and space-based ULF emission observation

Mahmoudian Alireza, Safari Mohsen, Rezapour Mehdi

Acta Geophysica

2022

Vol. 70, no 3

1269--1284

The present paper aims at earthquake prediction assessment in Iran using VLF radio signal sounding and space-based ULF emission observation. VLF subionospheric data using the Denizkoy transmitter in Turkey at 26.7 kHz and a receiving station in Tehran are incorporated. Three earthquake events during 2019 located at different distances to the signal propagation path are used in this study. The short-term variations in the VLF signal for the 5 days averaged amplitude, as well as the deviation of the VLF signal against the 30 days averaged signal to monitor the alternation in the trend, are employed in this study to perform earthquake prediction assessment using VLF radio signal sounding. Several characteristic parameters of the VLF signal such fall-time, minimum 1 and minimum 2 throughout the day are used. A threshold over the standard deviation of the signal is used to determine the signal anomaly. The signal anomalies associated with three selected events and the correlation of prediction with the distance are discussed. A decision-making procedure for the detection of EQ-related anomalies based on the assessment of the proposed approach is introduced. The ULF emissions recorded by the China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) are provided and associated with the two analyzed earthquakes using the VLF data due to lack of time coverage for the third case. The space-based detected ULF signals are presented and discussed. The proximity of the detected ULF emission with respect to the earthquake epicenter is discussed.

Fractal characteristics of the ULF emissions along a meridian profile, based on the 210 MM stations data

Varlamov A., Smirnova N., Hayakawa M., Yumoto K.

Acta Geophysica

2012

Vol. 60, no. 3

928-941

Fractal analysis of magnetic records (1 Hz sampling rate) of 5 stations (Guam, Moshiri, Paratunka, Magadan, and Chokurdakh) located along the 210 magnetic meridian (210 MM) has been performed using the Higuchi method. The period of 22 months (October 1992 to July 1994) that embodies the date of the strong Guam earthquake of 8 August 1993 has been considered. A comparison of the ULF emissions scaling parameters (spectral exponents β and fractal dimensions D) obtained at different latitudes has been made. Dependence of β and D on the Kp index of geomagnetic activity has been analyzed for each of the 24 local time intervals. It is revealed that D decreases (β increases) with increasing geomagnetic activity at all stations, but the rates of decrease (increase) are different at different stations and in different time intervals. It is shown that the evening, night and early morning hours are preferable to study magnetospheric effects, whereas the noon hours are the most suitable for the analysis of lithospheric effects. A possibility of using the data of the 210 MM stations as reference materials for the Guam seismically active area is discussed.