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Probabilistic approach to lifetime assessment of steam turbines

Banaszkiewicz M., Gerdes R.

Transactions of the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery

2003

nr 113

95--106

The paper presents a probabilistic method of computational estimation of steam turbine life. The need for the use of probabilistic analysis results from the inherent uncertainty in estimating lifetime expenditure due to creep and thermal fatigue. As a starting point for analysis, a deterministic method of lifetime consumption calculation of steam turbines critical components was presented, and main sources of uncertainty present in this approach were discussed. Then, a mathematical model proposed for probabilistic calculations was described in detail. As an example of probabilistic approach, an analysis of failure probability of a 200 MW steam turbine HP stop valve resulting from the scatter of material data was given. Numerical simulations were performed using a computer code developed by ALSTOM Power.