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1 2010

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Study on Shipping Safety Strategy Based on Accident Forecast Model

Meng X.Y., Bai Y. M., Han X. J.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2010

Vol. 4, no. 3

261--264

The factors which would cause shipping accidents are analyzed in detail and a model which can forecast shipping accidents is studied in this paper. During navigation, all the factors are integrated and calcu-lated in this model which then estimate and speculate on the risk degree of collision for the own ship. Finally, the risk level and the possibility of shipping accidents can be forecasted in real-time. The proposed accident forecast model can estimate the possibility of collision with other ships or objects in a specific domain. Meanwhile, the external environment such as weather, stream, etc. is taken into account in the model. Be-sides, the validity of navigators’ orders can also be evaluated in the model which consequently can forecast different kinds of shipping accidents effectively in that most of the factors which cause shipping accidents have been involved in the proposed model. With the accident forecast model, the shipping safety would be improved greatly. A practical example demonstrates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed strate-gy.