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2 TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2 2011

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A New Definition of a Collision Zone For a Geometrical Model For Ship-Ship Collision Probability Estimation

Montewka J., Goerlandt F., Kujala P.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2011

Vol. 5, no. 4

497--504

In this paper, a study on a newly developed geometrical model for ship-ship collisions probability estimation is conducted. Most of the models that are used for ship-ship collision consider a collision be-tween two ships a physical contact between them. The model discussed in this paper defines the collision cri-terion in a novel way. A critical distance between two meeting ships at which such meeting situation can be considered a collision is calculated with the use of a ship motion model. This critical distance is named the minimum distance to collision (MDTC). Numerous factors affect the MDTC value: a ship type, an angle of intersection of ships’ courses, a relative bearing between encountering ships and a maneuvering pattern. They are discussed in the paper.

A Method for Assessing a Causation Factor for a Geometrical MDTC Model for Ship-Ship Collision Probability Estimation

Montewka J., Goerlandt F., Lammi H., Kujala P.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2011

Vol. 5, no. 3

365--373

In this paper a comparative method for assessing a causation factor for a geometrical model for ship-ship collision probability estimation is introduced. The results obtained from the model are compared with the results of an analysis of near-collisions based on recorded AIS data and then with the historical data on maritime accidents in the Gulf of Finland. The causation factor is obtained for three different meeting types, for a chosen location and prevailing traffic conditions there.