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Estimating the Number of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland in 2015

Hanninen P., Kujala P., Ylitalo J., Kuronen J.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2012

Vol. 6, no. 3

367--373

The paper presents a model for estimating the number of ship-ship collisions for future traffic scenarios. The modeling is based on an approach where the number of collisions in an area is estimated as a product of the number collision candidates, i.e. the number of collisions of two ships, if no evasive maneuvers were made, and a causation probability describing the probability of making no evasive maneuvers. However, the number of collisions is presented as a combination of binomially distributed random variables. The model is applied for the assessment of tanker collision frequency in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. 2015 traffic is modeled as three alternative scenarios each having a certain probability of occurrence. The number of collisions can be presented either for each scenario, or as an estimate including the uncertainty in future marine traffic development by taking into account all scenarios and their occurrence probabilities.

The Effects of Causation Probability on the Ship Collision Statistics in the Gulf of Finland

Hanninen M., Kujala P.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2010

Vol. 4, no. 1

79--84

In this study the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland is studied by examining the collision probability estimates in a heavily used crossing area. In a commonly applied approach for estimating the probability of collision accidents, so-called number of collision candidates is multiplied with a so-called cau-sation probability. In this study a Bayesian network model for the causation probability estimation is applied with different parameter values in order to examine the effects of weather and human factors on collision probability in the crossing of Helsinki-Tallinn traffic and vessels navigating east- or westbound. The results show that the probability of collisions is very sensitive to the causation probability value and it should be modelled with great care to obtain reliable results.