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Assessment of climate change impacts on extreme precipitation in the Okpara Basin at Nanon (Benin)

Obada Ezéchiel, Yarou Halissou, Biao Eliézer Iboukoun, Hounnondaho Freddy Zinsè, Zandagba Josué, Alamou Adéchina Eric

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

2025

Vol. 13, Iss. 2

71--86

Extreme weather events have significant impacts on society, water resources, health, and agriculture. In this research, we analyze recent (1951-2020) and projected (2030-2099) trends in extreme precipitation indices within the Okpara Basin at the Nanon outlet. To achieve this, eight indices of extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were calculated using daily observations and outputs from SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios based on the AWI-CM, INM-CM, and EC-Earth3 models. The Mann-Kendall and Student’s t-test methods were applied to examine trends and changes in time series of extreme indices. The findings reveal that over the historical period, consecutive wet days (CWD) and the number of wet days (R1mm) showed non-significant increasing trends. The consecutive dry days (CDD), RX5day, R95p, and R99p indices indicated non-significant downward trends. Over the projected period, the CWD and CDD indices exhibit downward or upward trends depending on the scenario and climate model: the RX1day, RX5day, R95p, R99p, R1mm, and PRCPTOT indices display upward trends for all scenarios and models. An intensification of wet conditions is therefore expected in the basin, and it is important for basin managers, planners, and decision-makers to develop strategies to prevent and properly manage possible water-related crises in the basin.

Projections of wind climate and wave energy resources in Lithuanian territorial waters of the Baltic Sea in the 21st century

Jakimavičius Darius, Akstinas Vytautas

Oceanologia

2023

No. 65 (4)

534--547

Wave energy is still insufficiently explored and exploited as a future energy source. Climate change is an additional force that affects energy potential changes. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the wave energy under climate change and to project it for the near (2025–2044) and far (2081–2100) future by applying the wave energy flux (WEF) approach and statistical relations between wind speeds and wave heights. The study was concentrated on the Baltic Sea nearshore at the Lithuanian territorial water. The analysis of existing relations between wind speeds and wave heights was found based on historical observations of the reference period (1995–2014), and the projections of WEF were created using the downscaled output of best-fit global climate models (GCMs) according to four scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The results indicated strong relations between wind speed and wave height, especially for the west-origin winds. Depending on the selected scenarios, the projected WEF may increase up to 10% (SSP5-8.5) and 11% (SSP1-2.6) in the near and far future respectively. The absence of large differences between the periods may be caused by the rough resolution of grid cells of GCMs. The comparison with the results based on regional climate models output could be a future perspective in order to reach a better representation of regional forces and to introduce more clarity to the obtained results. The results of this study may be advantageous for the primary planning of renewable energy sources (RES) development, especially in the face of climate change.