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Influence of climate change on the ice conditions of the Curonian Lagoon

Jakimavičius Darius, Šarauskienė Diana, Kriaučiūnienė Jūratė

Oceanologia

2020

No. 62 (2)

164-172

The Curonian Lagoon is a shallow freshwater lagoon of significant environmental value in the south-eastern part of the Baltic Sea. The objective of the study was to evaluate changes of ice indices (duration, thickness and breakup dates) of this lagoon and to assess their possible tendencies in the 21st century. A methodology was developed combining the assessment of past changes (1960-2017) of ice indices and their projections in the near (2021-2040) and far (2081-2100) future periods using a hydrometeorological database, statistical methods and regression analysis as well as regional climate models and RCP scenarios. Climate change has a considerable impact on ice conditions in the Curonian Lagoon. During the historical period of 1960-2017, the Curonian Lagoon was covered with ice for 72 days a year, ice thickness reached 23 cm, whereas ice breakup was observed in the middle of March on average. According to the different scenarios, in the near and far future periods, ice duration will last 35-45 and 3-34 days, respectively. Ice thickness is projected to be 13-15 cm in the near future, whereas, at the end of the century, it is expected to decline to 0-13 cm. In the past, the lagoon ice cover remained until the middle of the third decade of February. At the end of the 21st century, RCP8.5 scenario projects the most drastic shifts: the permanent ice cover might be absent, whereas short-term ice cover is expected to melt already in the beginning of January.

Impact of climate change on the Curonian Lagoon water balance components, salinity and water temperature in the 21st century

Jakimavičius D., Kriaučiūnienė J., Šarauskienė D.

Oceanologia

2018

No. 60 (3)

378--389

The Curonian Lagoon is a shallow water body connected to the Baltic Sea by a narrow navigable strait, which enables an exchange of water of different salinity. The projected climate change together with the peculiarities of mixing water will undoubtedly alter hydrological regime of this lagoon. The study uses three climate model outputs under four RCP scenarios, four sea level rise scenarios and hydrological modelling in order to project the extent to which water balance components, salinity and temperature may change in the future. In order to simulate river inflow, the Nemunas River hydrological model was created using HBV software. In general, the changes of the lagoon water balance components, salinity and temperature are expected to be more significant in 2081-2100 than in 2016-2035. It was estimated that in the reference period (1986-2005) the river inflow was 22.1 km3, inflow from the sea was 6.8 km3, salinity (at Juodkrantė) was 1.2 ppt and average water temperature of the lagoon was 9.2°C. It was projected that in 2081-2100 the river inflow may change from 22.1 km3 (RCP2.6) to 15.9 km3 (RCP8.5), whereas inflow from the sea is expected to vary from 8.5 km3 (RCP2.6) to 11.0 km3 (RCP8.5). The lagoon salinity at Juodkrantė is likely to grow from 1.4 ppt (RCP2.6) to 2.6 ppt (RCP8.5) by the end of the century due to global sea level rise and river inflow decrease. The lagoon water temperature is projected to increase by 2-6°C by the year 2100.