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Risk assessment approaches for offshore structures

Shouman M., Ghoneim N. I., El-Khatib M.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2021

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Vol. 15 No. 2

401--406

EN

Risk assessment and management was established as a scientific field some 30–40 years ago. Principles and methods were developed for how to conceptualize, assess, and manage risk. These principles and methods still represent largely the foundation of this field today, but many advances have been made, linked to both the theoretical platform and practical models and procedures. The purpose of the thesis is to perform a review of these advances, with a special focus on the fundamental ideas and thinking on which these are based. We have looked for trends in perspectives and approaches, and we reflect on where further development of the risk field is needed and should be encouraged. The present study is written for readers with different types of background, not only for experts on risk. However, there is a conflict between the cost impact and safety aspect. E&P managers as well as government supervisor authorities are constantly faced with decisions to be made regarding of safety. In order to ensure comparability and to set priorities application of QRA is a useful tool to justify choices made with regard to personnel safety, environmental protection, asset damage and business reputation, it is recommended to apply the systematic cause analysis method and develop the risk management models which contains an integral approach toward the health, safety and environmental aspect.

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Quantitative assessment of risk to ship traffic in the fehmarnbelt fixed link project

Rasmussen F. M., Glibbery K. A. K., Melchild K., Hansen M. G., Jensen T. K., Lehn-Schiøler T., Randrup-Thomsen S.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2012

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Vol. 3, No. 1

123--134

EN

Rambøll is on behalf of Femern A/S carrying out navigational studies of the vessel traffic conditions in the Fehmarnbelt in connection with the establishment of a future Fehmarnbelt fixed link, a 19 km long bridge or immersed tunnel connection crossing the Fehmarnbelt. The focus is on documenting safety and efficiency for the vessel traffic when a fixed link is crossing the Fehmarnbelt. Rambøll has developed the ShipRisk software package to perform the quantitative risk assessments in the Fehmarnbelt fixed link project. Focus in this article is on describing the background for estimating frequencies of ship accidents in ShipRisk and describe factors influencing the accident scenarios and present the work performed for testing and verifying the model.

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Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA)

Flage R., Aven T.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2008

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Vol. 1

109--115

EN

A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) should provide a comprehensive, informative and balanced picture of risk, in order to support decisions. To achieve this, a proper treatment of uncertainty is a prerequisite. Most approaches to treatment of uncertainty in QRA seem to be based on the thinking that uncertainty relates to the calculated probabilities and expected values. This causes difficulties when it comes to communicating what the analysis results mean, and could easily lead to weakened conclusions if large uncertainties are involved. An alternative approach is to hold uncertainty as a main component of risk, and regard probabilities as epistemic-based expressions of uncertainty. In the paper the latter view is taken, and we describe what should be the main pillars of a risk description following this approach. We also indicate how this approach should relate to decision-making. An important issue addressed is how to communicate the shortcomings and limitations of probabilities and expected values. Sensitivity analysis plays a key role in this regard. An example is included to illustrate ideas and findings.