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Threat Assessment in the National Crisis Management Plans in Poland after 2010

Krasiński Wojciech

Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Sztuki Wojennej

2019

nr 4(117)

58--68

The article discusses threat assessment in consecutive National Crisis Management Plans in Poland after 2010. The scope of the article is limited to the assessment of those threats that may have an impact at the state level and which are included in the National Crisis Management Plan. A general approach to threat assessment for the purposes of national crisis management plans has been taken. A reference to the accuracy of consecutive threat assessments in the context of the occurrence of real crises is included later in the article. In the final part of the article, the perspectives for threat assessment are discussed. Due attention is paid to threats which have an increased likelihood of occurring and the severest consequences.