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Rozmiary wpływu Oscylacji Południowej na niektóre cechy klimatu rejonu południowego wybrzeża Bałtyku

Marsz A.A.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

1999

Z. 1-2

53-59

The paper treats of the results of correlation between monthly and annual of SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) and values of mean monthly air temperatures (Tsm) and mean annual temperatures (Tsr) in Koszalin. The station had been taken as the representative one for characterizing the climatological conditions in the region of South Baltic Coast. The series of 125 years (1866-1990) had been analysed. Correlation SOI ŽTsm, SOI ŽTsr were led during present time and with following displacements 1-36 month's, both in monthly section and with reference to 3-month's sum of SOI and Tsm. Analysis showed very rare occurrence of correlation, which crosses a threshold of statistical significance (p<0,05). Indexes of correlation (R) are very low and they do not cross 0,25 in any case. Elimination of 2-5 extreme values from the series characterized by p<0,05 makes the correlation statisticaly unessential (p>0,05). Analysis of anomalous situations (extremely cold winters, extremely hot winters, extremely cold summers), which in conditions of South Baltic Coast has its genesis in drastic changes of atmospheric circulation (reduction or intensification of west transfer) in comparison to average conditions, showed lack of intelligible relationships between SOI and the character of, for example, an anomalous winter. Just the same (from statistical point of view) series SOI describes, extremely cold winters and extremely hot winters. Such a picture allows to submit, that the influence of Southern Oscillation on forming the climat of South Coast of Baltic is not crossing the level of noise. It forces to express opinions on the subject of reasons of occurring anomalous conditions of weather phenomenon in this area carefuly.