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Rainfall and rainy days trend and ENSO phenomena in Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan

Sharma Vasker, Adhikari Kirtan

Acta Geophysica

2022

Vol. 70, no 4

1855--1869

The study explores the seasonal rainfall and rainy days trend in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test was applied to detect the trend and magnitude of the trend for both the rainfall and rainy days. The trends are also analyzed with respect to the elevation of the climatic stations. Further, an attempt has been made to recognize the El-Ni ño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-rainfall interaction using station-based rainfall with the ENSO cycle considering the period of 33 years. Cross-correlation of ENSO and rainfall with respect to elevation has also been presented. The trend analysis showed that in the localized regions, both the rainfall and rainy days trend was significantly declining, however, the trend in most of the stations is hardly conspicuous which may be attributed to the influence of the orographic phenomena. From the ENSO-rainfall assessment, it was observed that rainfall in the southern foothills correlates negatively with the ENSO phenomena indicating intense rainfall after 1–2 months of the cooling phase of the Pacifc Ocean. However, such an ENSO effect is not observed in the majority of the meteorological stations which may be attributed to the location of the station in the mountainous region where the topography affects the rainfall variation.