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Frekwencja makrotypów cyrkulacji środkowotroposferycznej według klasyfikacji Wangengejma-Girsa w okresie zimowym a pole ciśnienia atmosferycznego nad Europą i północną Azją

Marsz A.A.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

2013

Z. 1-2

3--23

Procesy cyrkulacyjne w środkowej troposferze sterują procesami cyrkulacji dolnej, dzięki czemu częstość występowania środkowotroposferycznych fal długich w określonych położeniach może stanowić syntetyczną klimatyczną charakterystykę przepływów w dolnej troposferze. W pracy przeanalizowano związki zachodzące między frekwencją makrotypów cyrkulacji środkowotroposferycznych Wangengejma-Girsa a polem ciśnienia na poziomie morza (SLP) w okresie zimowym nad obszarem strefy umiarkowanej Europy i północnej Azji (40-65°N, 10°W-130°E). Zima rozumiana jest jako okres od grudnia do marca włącznie, badaniami objęto okres 1951-2010. Przeprowadzona analiza wykazała bardzo silne związki między frekwencją makrotypów W i E według klasyfikacji Wangengejma-Girsa a polem ciśnienia (rys. 6). Ze wzrostem frekwencji makrotypu W w czasie zimy silnie spada ciśnienie w północnej części Europy i Azji, rośnie na pograniczu strefy umiarkowanej z subtropikami, co prowadzi do dominacji cyrkulacji strefowej, sięgającej na północy w głąb Syberii (do 120-125°E). W przypadku wzrostu frekwencji makrotypu E rozkład przestrzenny zmian SLP jest odwrotny, a zasięg Wyżu Azjatyckiego silnie rozciąga się na północo-zachód. W rezultacie zmian frekwencji makrotypów W i E wytwarza się zimą „huśtawka” zmian ciśnienia między południową a północną częścią strefy umiarkowanej, najsilniejsza nad obszarem zachodniej i środkowej Europy. Wzrost frekwencji makrotypu C powoduje najsilniejsze deformacje pola SLP na obszarze wokół Morza Północnego (wzrost ciśnienia), słabsze w rejonie Kazachstanu (spadek SLP). Na pozostałych obszarach przy zmianach frekwencji makrotypu C zmiany SLP są statystycznie nieistotne. Obserwowane w latach 1951-2010 zmiany frekwencji makrotypów W, E i C, poprzez ich wpływ na kształtowanie pola SLP, dobrze objaśniają występujące w tym okresie zmiany temperatury powietrza na rozpatrywanym obszarze.

Circulation processes in the mid- troposphere control the lower circulation processes. Thanks to this frequency of long mid-tropospheric waves in certain positions may be a synthetic climatic characteristics of the flows in the lower troposphere. The study is analyzing the relationships between the frequency of mid-tropospheric circulation Wangengejm-Girs macro-types and sea level pressure (SLP) in Winter over the area of moderate zones of Europe and North Asia (40-65°N, 10°W-130°E). Winter is defined as the period from December to the end of March. The study covered the period 1951-2010. The analysis showed a very strong corelation between the frequency of W and E macro-types according to the Wangengejm-Girs classification and pressure field (Fig. 6, E).In Winter the increase of frequency of macro-type W causes a visible fall of pressure in the northern part of Europe and Asia, and increase in pressure on the border of the moderate zone with the subtropical zone. This leads to the dominance of the zonal circulation extending north into Siberia (up to 120-125 °E). In case of the increase in frequency of macro-type E, spatial distribution of SLP changes is reversed, and the range of the Asian High extends far to the north-west. In Winter the dominance of macro-type E leads to a blockade with the center over the Ural region - NE Europe. Changes in a frequency of macro-types W and E create a “swing” of pressure, and changes between southern and northern part of the temperate zone. It is the strongest over the area of western and central Europe. The increase in frequency of macro-type C causes the strongest deformation of SLP fields in the area around the North Sea (increase in pressure) and weaker deformation in the region of Kazakhstan and Western Siberia (decrease in SLP). In other areas changes in frequency of macro-type C do not result in SLP changes which are statistically significant. The observed changes in the frequency of macro-types W, E and C, over the period 1951-2010, their influence on the SLP field, explain in a very good way, the changes in air temperature in the examined area observed during this period.

O "arktycznych" i "atlantyckich" mechanizmach sterujących zmiennością temperatury powietrza na obszarze Europy i północo-zachodniej Azji

Marsz A. A., Styszyńska A.

Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej

2006

nr 16

47-89

Praca omawia wpływ zmian ciśnienia atmosferycznego w Arktyce Atlantyckiej (dalej AA) na kształtowanie zmienności temperatury powietrza na obszarze Europy (na N od 40°N) i NW Azji (do 120°E). Wpływ zmian ciśnienia w AA na temperaturę powietrza zaznacza się we wszystkich, z wyjątkiem czerwca, miesiącach roku, tworząc charakterystyczny cykl z maksimum siły oddziaływania zimą. Zimowe (01-03) zmiany ciśnienia w AA objaśniają od kilkunastu do ponad 60% zmienności temperatury rocznej (z maksimum na obszarze wokół-bałtyckim; 1951-2000). W pracy analizuje się współdziałanie zmian ciśnienia w Arktyce Atlantyckiej ze zmianami ciśnienia w Wyżu Syberyjskim w kształtowaniu zmienności temperatury powietrza na obszarze Europy i NW Azji. Dyskutuje się również kwestie związków zmian ciśnienia w AA z NAO, AO oraz frekwencją makrotypów cyrkulacji środkowotroposferycznej wg klasyfikacji Wangengejma-Girsa. Wyniki analiz wykazują, że o zimowych zmianach ciśnienia w AA decyduje wcześniejszy rozkład zasobów ciepła w wodach Atlantyku Północnego.

The research on relations between climatic elements of Europe and the Arctic has indicated that there are significant correlations between changes in atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic part of the Arctic and air temperature in northern Europe and NW Asia. The strongest correlations are observed between changes in pressure over relatively small area of the Atlantic part of the Arctic (72.5 - 80.0°N, 10.0 - 25.0°E), in addition, the point over which changes in pressure explain most of changes in air temperature is located 75.0°N, 015.0°E. Pressure at this point is further referred as P[75,15] with an index denoting a month (e.g. P[75,15]03 denotes mean pressure in March and P[75,15]01-03 defines mean pressure at this point from the period January till March). Over the Atlantic part of the Arctic within the pressure area there is no marked climatic centre which could be regarded as the centre of atmospheric activity. The research made use of monthly series of SLP values (reanalysis: set NOAA.NCEP-NCAR. CDAS-1.MONTHLY.Intrinsic.MSL.pressure) and the values of monthly air temperature from 211 stations (Fig. 1). The observational period common for both elements covers 50 years, i.e. the period from January 1951 to December 2000. The character of correlations between P[75,15] and air temperature in the following months, from June to May, and their spatial distribution have been presented by isocorrelates maps (Fig. 2). Changes in the strength of correlations between P[75,15] and the temperature over Europe and NW Asia form a clear annual cycle interrupted in June. In June the correlations between P[75,15] and air temperature became very weak and not significant over the most of the area and not continuous in space. During the months after June these correlations got stronger and stronger reaching their maximum during cold season (from November to April). This maximum is located in the region adjacent to the Baltic Sea, where annual and winter (01-03) changes in P[75,15] explain from more than 60% to 50% of annual temperature variances (Fig. 3) The strongest correlation between P[75,15] and air temperature in Siberia is located N of Baikal, where winter (01-03) changes in P[75,15] explain 43-45% of annual temperature variances. At the end of the cold season a visible delay of the decrease in the strength of correlation is observed in the region of Siberia in relation to the European region (in Europe after March, in Siberia after April). Variability in winter and annual values of pressure at 75°N, 015°E also indicates relatively strong correlations with the changeability in temperature of the warmest month in the year in the west and central region of Europe. The annual variability in P[75,15] explains from 40% to 30% changeability of maximum temperature in the region extending from the Atlantic coast of France to central Germany. This belt extends farther east towards the Baltic Sea. The latter correlation has not been explained in this work. The analysis of correlations of changes in pressure at 75°N, 15°E with NAO indicates to the occurrence of statistically significant correlations during months of cold season in the year (October - March, May and June; Tab. 2). Similar analysis of correlations of changes in P[75,15] with AO index (Arctic Oscillation) shows strong and highly statistically significant correlations in all months of the year with maximum falling in January and February. Annual changes in P[75,15], i.e. in pressure at one point explain 73% annual changeability in AO index (r = 0.86) and the winter changeability in (December - March) P[75,15] explains 78% of winter changeability in AO index (r = 0.88) which is the first vector EOF of pressure field (1000 hPa) covering the area from 20°N to the North Pole (90°N), that is the most area of the Northern Hemisphere. This analysis shows that the changes in pressure at the point 75°N, 15°E result in intensification of cyclogenesis over west and central part of the North Atlantic and the consequent long waves (waves of W type following Wangengejm-Girs classification) cause that anticyclones formed over the Atlantic will direct towards Fram Strait through the region of Iceland. The above process has nothing or almost nothing to do with the form of changeability in polar strato-spheric eddy, as assumed by Tomphson and Wallace (1998, 2000, Thompson, Wallace, Hegerl 2000) to be essential for the Arctic Oscillation functioning. Occurrence of correlations between P[75,15] and air temperature over vast areas from 10°W to 130°E suggests that also changes in pressure in the Siberian High are engaged in this process. Theanalysis shows that in a yearly process, changes in pressure in the Atlantic part of the Arctic and in the Siberian High occur in opposite phases (see Tab.1). Barometric gradient between the Atlantic part of the Arctic and the Siberian High becomes extremely strong during the cold season of the year contributing to "pumping" air from eastern Europe to the far end of the Siberia. During the summer season the gradient becomes very weak as the about-turn takes place. The cooperation of changes in pressure in the Atlantic part of the Arctic and pressure in region located farther Baikal -- Mongolia results in very strong oscillation which partly can be identified with Euro-Asian Oscillation (Monahan et al. 2000). During winter season interannual changes in pressure in the Siberian High are relatively small and explain 10.4% variances of barometric gradient between P[75,15] and point 45°N, 110°E (the region of the centre of the Siberian High), whereas the interannual changes in P[75,15] explain 77.5% of variances in this gradient. This means that in the cold season of the year the intensity of air transfer from the west towards Asian land depends on variability in pressure in the Atlantic part of the Arctic. Because in the months of the cold season of the year NAO is the strongest and significantly correlated with changes in P[75,15] therefore, a two-element, with the same phase "conveyor belt" is formed, which during positive phases of NAO transfers the air from over the Atlantic to Europe (NAO) and then towards and into the Siberia (Euro-Asian Oscillation). P[75,15] during cold season months of the year (01-03) indicates statistically significant negative trend (-0.153 hPa/year; p < 0.006) which enables to state that the observed, over the years 1951-2000, increase in air temperature in the Siberia can be, in great extent, attributed to the activity of the above described circulation mechanism. The analysis of reasons for interannual changes in P[75,15] has indicated that there are strong and significant correlations between variability in P[75,15] and the earlier variability in the thermal conditions of the Atlantic Ocean. A very important role in this relation plays thermal condition of three sea areas, i.e. waters of the subtropical region of central part of the North Atlantic (characterized by SST anomalies in grid 34°N, 40°W from August and September), waters of the middle latitudes zone of the central part of the North Atlantic (characterized by SST anomalies from August and September in grid 54°N, 30°W) and waters of the North Atlantic Current from the approach to the Farero-Shetland Passage (characterized by SST anomalies from January and April in grid 60°N, 10°W). Thermal state of these three sea water areas (see formulas [1] and [2]) explains 58% changeability in P[75,15] which will be observed in the following winter (DJFM). The cause of the described correlation is attributed to the fact that the earlier thermal state of the above mentioned sea areas controls the occurrence of long waves, of W and E Wangengejm-Girs type during the following winter. Further, these waves influence the occurrence of low cyclones over the Atlantic part of the Arctic during winter resulting in adequate changes in mean monthly pressure. As a result, it can be stated that the interannual variability in air temperature over vast areas of Europe and over NW Asia is influenced by the processes observed over the North Atlantic and the Atlantic part of the Arctic. The research covers years 1971-2003 (ano-malies in SST taken from 1970-2002) due to the fact that the data have been not only accessible and reliable but also homogeneous with respect to climatological data of SST (CACSST data set (Reynolds and Roberts 1987, Reynolds 1988) and SST OI v.1. (Reynolds et al. 2002).