Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

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Prognoza stanu technicznego infrastruktury kanalizacyjnej na bazie modelu Markov’a

Raganowicz A., Dziopak J.

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Rzeszowskiej. Budownictwo i Inżynieria Środowiska

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2012

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z. 59, nr 2/I

145--153

PL

Określona grupa statystycznych prognoz stanu technicznego sieci kanalizacyjnych wykorzystuje stochastyczny model Markov’a. Zmodyfikowana wersja tego modelu, zwana Hidden-Markow-Model, została opracowana przez Baum’a w latach sześćdziesiątych ubiegłego stulecia. Jest ona powszechnie stosowana do rozwiązywania wielu problemów z zakresu biologii, językoznawstwa, gospodarki i wielu innych dziedzin nauki i wiedzy. Model ten może być także zastosowany do opisu ukrytych zmian stanu technicznego sieci kanalizacyjnej, jakie zachodzą w trakcie jej eksploatacji. Bazą takiego modelowania są obserwacje rzeczywiste w trakcie inspekcji optycznych sieci. W publikacji przedstawiono przykład prognozy stanu technicznego sieci kanalizacyjnych opartej na matematycznym modelu statystyczno-stochastycznym reprezentowanym przez model Markov’a, który w sensie matematycznym dokładnie opisuje zmiany stanu technicznego badanego obiektu.

EN

The article deals with methods of statistical and stochastic forecasting of sewage networks technical condition. Presented prognosis was prepared on basis of stochastic Markov’s model. Results of optical inspection were used as data base for this prognosis.

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Markov's model of means of transport operation and maintenance in a city transport system

Woropay M., Migawa K., Wdzięczny A.

Journal of KONES

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2009

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Vol. 16, No. 3

511-516

EN

The paper deals with an analysis and mathematical model of means of transport operation and maintenance. The considerations are based on a selected real transport means system - city bus transport system in a chosen agglomeration. The model has been built on the basis of a real city transport system involving realization of the process of operation and maintenance of means of transport. For this purpose, the process significant states and possible transitions between theses states have been determined. On this basis, an event model of means of transport operational use process was built, and next its mathematical model was made, with the assumption of its being the homogenous Markov 's model. Means of transport values of boundary probabilities for their being in the process particular states, were determined for data concerning their operational use. This serves as the basis for an analysis of the studied process of operational use. The presented Markov's model of the means of transport operational use process is the effect of accomplishmen of the first stage of the resultant model (semi-Markov's model) of operational use. The resultant model will be a part of a wide scale, decision model for creation and assessment of the transport system being ready for operation.

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Initial model of transport means availability of real city transport system

Woropay M., Migawa K., Bojar P.

Journal of KONES

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2009

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Vol. 16, No. 2

495-502

EN

The article presents a determination method of transport means service ability in a real city transport system. The considerations have been demonstrated on the basis of a real city bus transport system in a chosen agglomeration. The executive subsystem consisting of elementary subsystems of the type human - technical object (operator - transport means) whose service ability and reliability have a direct influence on capability to perform the transport task is directly responsible for accomplishment of the city transport system tasks. In order to develop a model of means of transport serviceability there were determined significant states of the operational use process and there was made a division and reduction of the number of states in terms of the availability criterion. On this basis, an event model of the process of transport means operational use, and then a mathematical model of this process, were built with the assumption that its model is a homogenous Markov 's process X(t). Next, boundary values of availability coefficient for the distinguished availability levels of transport means used in the city transport system were determined for operational data obtained from a real city bus transport system. The discussed model for determination of transport means availability is an initial one, developed on the basis of a nine-state model of operational use. In further part of the paper, there will be developed a resultant model of transport means availability determination (semi-Markov 's sixteen-state model), being a component of a wider, decision model for creation and assessment of transport means availability.

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Giving prognosis for the chosen features of the operation and maintenance system based on model investigations

Woropay M., Landowski B.

Journal of KONES

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2009

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Vol. 16, No. 4

513-520

EN

The paper deals with the chosen issues related to modelling, giving prognosis and controlling maintenance process of a certain class of the technical objects being realized in a complex maintenance system. Supporting a decision maker in the decision making process related to the analysed maintenance system is to forecast behaviour of the maintenance system and evaluate influence of the chosen decision making variants on the maintenance process course. The object of the investigation, being the basis to illustrate the considerations presented herein, is an urban bus maintenance system in a selected urban agglomeration. The purpose of the paper is to present a possibility to use the Markov 's model of the technical object maintenance process to preliminarily forecast the maintenance system state after changing the model input parameter values. The change of the model input parameter values may simulate influence of the internal and external factors on the system behaviour. The presented method to model and forecast a maintenance system due to the assumed generalization degree of the description and the system approach to the problem may be used to forecast and analyse a maintenance process being carried out in other maintenance systems than the one in an urban bus transport system.