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EN
Water is of vital importance to ecosystems and human societies. Because of this, the UN Secretary-General has included the availability of clean water as one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study examined the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on groundwater availability in the Pasi watershed on Pasi Gusung Island, Selayar Islands. LULC changes significantly influence water balance as they determine infiltration and surface runoff patterns. Using cellular automata (CA) integrated with artificial neural network (ANN) modeling via the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS, historical LULC data from 2014 to 2023 were examined and changes through 2033 were forecasted. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was utilized to evaluate the impact of these changes on water availability. The analysis revealed significant LULC alterations, including the expansion of residential and agricultural areas, a decline in mangrove forests, and reduced groundwater recharge capacity. SWAT results suggest a potential reduction in groundwater storage due to decreased infiltration linked to LULC transformations. This study shows a close relationship between land use and land cover changes and fluctuations in groundwater availability in the Pasi watershed. Analysis of land cover from 2014 to 2023 and projections to 2033 show patterns of change that affect the hydrology of the area, including groundwater discharge and the balance between water availability and demand. Continued population growth pressures already limited water resources, creating a growing annual water deficit. This research provides strategic insights for developing sustainable water supply systems in response to projected land use change.
EN
In arid regions with increasing water needs due to growing populations and agriculture, heightened by climate change, groundwater arises as a crucial asset. This research evaluated climate change influence on groundwater potential zones (GPZs) during 2000 and 2014, within the Mostaganem plateau’s alluvial aquifer in Algeria, using a methodology that integrates analytical hierarchy process (AHP), remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). Forecasts for 2030 and 2050 were conducted using the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. Findings reveal a (30.29%) decrease in zones of moderate potential, the vanishing of high potential sectors, alongside a (7.53%) and a (22.1%) rise in fair potential and low potential, respectively, from 2000 to 2014. Between 2014 and 2030, fair and moderate potential decrease by 6.62% and 0.48%, while low potential zones see a 7.47% increase. These shifts are linked to changes in rainfall distribution, and land use land cover (LULC), notably intensive agriculture of herbaceous crops. Slight changes are anticipated between 2030 and 2050, possibly due to the onset of a resilience equilibrium from 2030 onwards. These findings are crucial as a preliminary investigation, highlighting the necessity of optimal groundwater management.
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