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Water resource modelling for the Lake Tana sub-basin using the Mike Basin model for current and future water resource development scenarios

Mulat Asegdew G.

Journal of Water and Land Development

2021

no. 48

215--224

Rainfall in the Lake Tana basin is highly seasonal and the base flow contribution is also low resulting in the need for reservoirs to meet the agricultural demand during the dry season. Water demand competition is increasing because of intense agricultural production. The objective of this study is to develop water balance models. The Mike Basin model has been selected for water allocation modelling and identifying potential changes needed to the existing water allocation scheme to reduce the stress due to increased water demand. The study considers baseline and future development scenarios. The construction of new dams results in two competing effects with respect to evaporation loss. The first effect is increased evaporation from new reservoirs, while the other is reduced evaporation from the Lake Tana as a result of a decreased surface area of the lake and reduced inflow of water to the lake. Once a dam is built, there will be an additional free water surface area and more evaporation loss. In dry months from January to May, the irrigation water demand deficit is up to 16 Mm3. It is caused by reservoirs built in the basin, which reduce the inflow to the Lake Tana. The inflow varies between wet and dry months, and there is more water flow in wet months (July, August and September) and reduced flow in dry months because of the regulatory effects produced by the reservoirs.