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Simulation of shift of range for Betula costata Trautv. and Juglans mandshurica Maxim. along Northeast China Transect (NECT)

Chen X.

Polish Journal of Ecology

2002

Vol. 50, nr 3

397-402

A mechanistic model of the adapted model of MIGRATE is constructed to simulate the shift of range for tree species of Betula costata Trautv. and Juglans mandshurica Maxim. at Northeast China Transect (42 stopnie - 46 stopni N, 108 stopni - 132 stopnie E) in China. The main processes include tree reproduction, seed dispersal and seed survivorship. The exponential, Gaussian and fat-tailed dispersakl functions are tested in the model, respectively. After comparing the results of modeled area, percentage ofoverlapped distribution area and pattern of abundance, it is found that Gaussian dispersal function can well describe the shift of range and abundance pattern of Betula costata Trautv. and Juglans mandshurica Maxim. at the short time scale. The events of wind-dispersal and animal-dispersal are considered, but the modeled results are invalid.