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Managing and Predicting Maritime and Off-shore Risk

Duffey R. B., Saull J. W.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2009

Vol. 3, no. 2

181--188

We wish to predict when an accident or tragedy will occur, and reduce the probability of its occurrence. Maritime accidents, just like all the other crashes and failures, are stochastic in their occurrence. They can seemingly occur as observed outcomes at any instant, without warning. They are due to a combination of human and technological system failures, working together in totally unexpected and/or undetected ways, occurring at some random moment. Massive show the cause is due to an unexpected combination or sequence of human, management, operational, design and training mistakes. Once we know what happened, we can fix the engineering or design failures, and try to obviate the human ones. We utilize reliability theory applied to humans, and show how the events rates and probability in shipping is related to other industries and events through the human involvement. We examine and apply the learning hypothesis to shipping losses and other events at sea, including example Case Studies stretching over some 200 years of: (a) merchant and fishing vessels; (b) oil spills and injuries in off-shore facilities; and (c) insurance claims, inspection rules and premiums. These include major losses and sinkings as well as the more everyday events and injuries. By using good practices and achieving a true learning environment, we can effectively defer the chance of an accident, but not indefinitely. Moreover, by watching our experience and monitoring our rate, understand and predict when we are climbing up the curve. Comparisons of the theory to all available human error data show a reasonable level of accord with the learning hypothesis. The results clearly demonstrate that the loss (human error) probability is dynamic, and may be predicted using the learning hypothesis. The future probability estimate is derivable from its unchanged prior value, based on learning, and thus the past frequency predicts the future probability. The implications for maritime activities is discussed and related to the latest work on managing risk, and the analysis of trends and safety indicators.

What is Human Factors Compared to Crew Resource Management?

Fahlgren A.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2007

Vol. 1, no. 1

109--112

The expression Human Factors can be interpreted in two different ways. Firstly: Human Factors is theoretical knowledge based on psychology and CRM is the practical use of that knowledge. Secondly: Human Factors is a concept, which we all too often hear is to blame for an incident or accident. What we actually should say is Human Failure this is where a person is to blame, instead of using the impersonal expression Human Factors. Maybe I am a bit provocative when I state that Human Factors do not cause accidents. It is Human Failure that causes accidents not Human Factors. I regard our Human Factors as a fantastic construction and design contributing to a greater quality of life that makes our lives on Earth both safer and more positive. Thanks to the appreciation and understanding of Human Factors, the fatal accident rate within Commercial Airlines has been reduced by 97% during the last 30 years. As I see it, when our Human Factors stop functioning, accidents can occur. In other words, a Human Factors breakdown will result in Human Failure. This indicates that the most important thing to learn and be aware of is all the external factors that will have a profound and negative influence on our Human Factors. So let me suggest that the following factors are directly detrimental to our Human Factors. Stress; Fatigue; Illness; Insufficient Training; Drugs; Hunger & Thirst; Lack of oxygen (at high altitude) and an Unsuitable or Bad Attitudes.