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1 TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

1 2009

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Estimation of the Probability of Propulsion Loss by a Seagoing Ship Based on Expert Opinions

Brandowski A., Frackowiak W.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2009

Vol. 3, no. 4

449--454

The event of the loss of propulsion function has been defined as hazardous event to a seagoing ship. It has been formalized. The procedure of acquisition of expert opinions on frequency of the event occurrence has been described. It may be considered to be of a numerical-fuzzy character. The fuzzy part was transferred to the numerical form by the pair comparison method. An example of the ship propulsion system comprising a low speed internal combustion engine and a solid propeller illustrates the method presented. It may be used wherever a hazard analysis has to be performed of a system involving human and technical aspects and there is a shortage of objective data on the investigated object.