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Application of the Gordon-Shapiro valuation model for dividend companies listed on the Polish and American stock exchanges for the period 2017-2023

Jabłoński Bartłomiej, Kika Dorota

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2025

z. 215

107--128

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to reveal, how issuers, that are components of the WIG and S&P500 indices, paid dividends in 2017-2023, and to evaluate the effectiveness of investing in selected dividend-paying companies using the single-stage Gordon-Shapiro model. Design/methodology/approach: The article analyzes each of the 30 dividend companies included in the WIG and S&P500 indices, that had the largest market capitalization at the end of 2017. The authors used comparative-descriptive methods and statistical data analysis to examine the differences between selected Polish and U.S. dividend-paying companies in 20172023. Stock valuation using the classical form of the Gordon-Shapiro model used the R2 coefficient of determination and linear regression. Findings: The results of empirical studies comparing Polish and U.S. dividend companies confirmed, that the latter are characterized by greater stability and systematically transfer profits to stockholders. Moreover, if, during the period under review, Polish companies paid dividends characterized by a higher rate of change, this was, at the same time, accompanied by a higher volatility of payments. In addition, the application of the classical Gordon-Shapiro model to stock valuation has proved problematic in both markets, due to the model’s overly stringent assumptions, which are difficult to meet in practice. In the Polish market, no valuation according to the model could be carried out, while in the U.S., a valuation was carried out only for 9 out of 24 companies, but even then, there were significant discrepancies between the model valuation and the market valuation. Research limitations/implications: Some limitations of the research should be noted, especially with regard to the number of dividend companies analyzed and the time range of the analyses. The authors plan to expand the study in the future to include a broader dataset, allowing for more comprehensive recommendations for investors on choosing companies and listing markets. Practical implications: Expanding knowledge in building investment portfolios, that include dividend companies, and evaluating investment efficiency using the Gordon-Shapiro model. In addition, knowledge of the dividend payment policies of companies listed on various stock exchanges is very important for both investors and investment fund managements, as this allows them to make better investment decisions, as to where to make efficient equity investments. Social implications: Among the article’s social implications, the most important seems to be a possible change in investors’ attitudes toward dividend companies and an increase in their knowledge of valuation using the Gordon-Shapiro model. Originality/value: The article undertakes a stock valuation using the Gordon-Shapiro Dividend Discount Model for the period 2017-2023. In addition, investments in dividend stocks in the Polish and U.S. markets were compared, taking into account the companies with the largest market capitalization from the WIG and S&P500 indices.