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1 Acta Geophysica Polonica

1 2005

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GSHAP revisited for the prediction of maximum credible earthquake in the Sikkim region, India

Vyas M., Nath S.K., Pal I., Sengupta P., Mohanty W.K.

Acta Geophysica Polonica

2005

Vol. 53, nr 2

143-152

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) has classified the Indian peninsula into several seismogenic zones. Considering the seismotectonic setting of the Sikkim Himalaya, sources 2, 3, 4, 5, 25, 26, 27 and 86 may be critical in contributing to the seismic hazard of the region. These seismogenic zones have been classified as Himalayan source (25, 86), extension of Tibetan plateau (26, 27), Burmese arc subduction zone (4, 5), Shillong plateau (3) and the Indian Shield region (2). The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region necessitated prediction of Maximum Credible Earthquake magnitude for each source with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Considering the widespread damages caused in the state capital of Sikkim due to the recent earthquakes of 1934 (Mw = 8) and 1988 (Mw = 7.2) a 50-year prediction seemed to be reasonable. Gutenberg-Richter (b-value) approach and Gumbel's method of extreme value statistics have been used in the present analysis for the prediction of Maximum Credible Earthquake magnitude, results of both being comparable to each other. The maximum credible earthquake magnitude as predicted by both the methods are above 6 except for zone 26, the highest being in the Burmese arc with a magnitude of 8.5 by Gutenberg-Richter approach and a magnitude of 7.7 by Gumbel's method.