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EN
We focus on a specific sub-model of the proposed family that we call the new half logistic-Fréchet. This sub-model stems from a new generalisation of the half-logistic distribution which we call the new half-logistic-G. The novelty of proposing this new family is that it does not include any additional parameters and instead relies on the baseline parameter. Standard statistical formulas are used to show the forms of the density and failure rate functions, ordinary and incomplete moments with generating functions, and random variate generation. The maximum likelihood estimation procedure is used to estimate the set of parameters. We conduct a simulation analysis to ensure that our calculations are converging with lower mean square error and biases. We use three real-life data sets to equate our model to well-established existing models. The proposed model outperforms the well-established four parameters beta Fréchet and exponentiated generalized Fréchet for some real- -life results, with three parameters such as half-logistic Fréchet, exponentiated Fréchet, Zografos–Balakrishnan gamma Fréchet, Topp–Leonne Fréchet, and Marshall–Olkin Fréchet and two-parameter classical Fréchet distribution.
EN
The present article addresses the issue of crossing time on the fairway, modeling in restricted areas, where vessel traffic flow is disturbed. Data of movement time on the Świnoujście–Szczecin fairway was grouped according to ship type. The probability distributions describing the crossing time of different ship groups were analyzed. Using the Pearson chi-square goodness-of-fit and Cramer–von Mises tests it has been shown that the best distributions describing traffic time of all ship groups are the generalized extreme value distributions.
EN
The aim of the article is to assess the variability of the floods’ risk with the use of maximal values distribution. In the authors’ researches, the hydrometric data in the form of daily water levels from the period of years 1981-2013 will be used. The collected data come from the hydrological station in town Trestno, located in the 242.1 km of Odra River (in southern-west Poland). For the purpose of estimating the flood risk, quarterly highs from the collected data have been selected. Authors have taken the probability of exceeding the alarm states for the analyzed section of the river as a measure of the risk of appearing floods. This risk has been calculated by using the theoretical cumulative distribution of quarterly highs of the water levels. The Frechet distribution was used in the studies as well. At the same time, the article has paid significant attention to the possibility of adapting the shown solutions for the integrated flood risk management process in accordance with the current National and European legislations.
PL
Analizie poddano maksymalne dobowe przepływy w Odrze zmierzone w latach 1971–2013 w stacji hydrologicznej w Malczycach. Z całego zbioru danych wyselekcjonowano maksymalne przepływy roczne i do ich rozkładu empirycznego dopasowano trzy rozkłady teoretyczne – Gumbela, Frecheta i logarytmiczno-normalny. Przedstawiony przykład analizy probabilistycznej zagrożenia powodziowego w dorzeczu Odry na Dolnym Śląsku może być skutecznym narzędziem w ocenie wystąpienia ryzyka powodziowego. Otrzymane w ten sposób wyniki mogą zostać wykorzystane do szacowania prawdopodobieństwa wystąpienia określonych zdarzeń związanych z zagrożeniem powodziowym, a także do porównywania wybranych obszarów dorzecza pod względem zagrożenia powodziowego.
EN
The maximum daily flows in the Oder river from the period of 1971 to 2013 were analyzed in Malczyce hydrological station. From the entire data set the maximum annual flows were selected and their empirical distributions were fitted against the three theoretical distribution models: Gumbel, Frechet and the lognormal. The presented case of probabilistic flood risk analysis for the Oder catchment in Lower Silesia may become an effective flood risk assessment tool. The results may be employed to probability assessment of certain events related to flood risk and also to compare the flood risk in selected catchment regions.
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