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Modeling and forecasting relative humidity using multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, and linear regression approaches

Kadiri Imad, Yahia Abdellah Ben, Abdallaoui Abdelaziz, El Hmaidi Abdellah

Advances in Science and Technology. Research Journal

2025

Vol. 19, no. 6

414--425

Forecasting relative humidity is a critical for addressing the challenges of climate change. It facilitates comprehension of climatic mechanisms and the anticipation of extreme weather events, while also contributing to strengthening societal resilience and protection. Indeed, elevated levels of humidity have been demonstrated to exacerbate heat waves, leading to a marked increase in both the perceived temperature and the associated health risks. Conversely, low humidity promotes conditions conducive to droughts and wildfires. Moreover, relative humidity plays a key role in the water cycle, influencing precipitation, evaporation, and cloud formation. Understanding these mechanisms is essential for anticipating floods, droughts, and water shortages. In this study, mathematical models were developed to predict relative humidity in the Fez, Morocco, using multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks, radial basis function (RBF) neural networks, and multiple linear regression (MLR). The dataset used in this study includes daily values of eight meteorological parameters, including temperature at 2m, shortwave Radiation, diffuse shortwave radiation, precipitation total, evapotranspiration, vapor pressure deficit and wind speed and relative humidity as the output. The data spans 38 years, from January 1985 to December 2022, and includes 13879 observation days.. To evaluate the predictive performance of these models, we analyzed their architectures, learning algorithms, correlation coefficients, and mean squared errors. The results indicate that the MLP model attains the highest predictive accuracy, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9809 and a mean squared error MSE of 0.0099, outperforming the RBF model (correlation of 0.9603) and the MLR model (correlation of 0.9023), the best performing model used a Tansig activation function in the hidden layer, a Purelin function in the output layer and the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm with a MLP configuration [7-15-1]. The findings of this study offer a valuable contribution to the field of water resource management in the region. They demonstrate the efficacy of artificial neural network models in enhancing moisture forecasting, thereby providing a solid foundation for future research in climate modelling.

Spatio-Temporal Behavior of Physico-Chemical Parameters of Fez Controlled Landfill Leachate

El Machrafi Imane, Baali Abdennasser, Touzani Ibrahim, Ahouach Youssra, Naoura Jamal, Fikri-Benbrahim Kawtar

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2024

Vol. 25, nr 12

1--9

Aiming to preserve and protect the environment, physical and chemical quality of young and mature leachate samples from Fez controlled landfill were studied and assessed. Therefore, leachate samples were taken and analysed during the period of January–September 2022. The physicochemical characterization of both young and mature leachates revealed a significant load of organic matter (biological and chemical oxygen demands: BOD5 and COD) and minerals (NTK and PO43-). In addition, the metallic trace elements (MTEs) concentrations recorded for Cr, Fe, Al and Ni exceeded the threshold levels required in national standards, and their quantitative distribution followed the same pattern at both sites studied: Ni > Fe > Cr > Al > Zn > Pb. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) enabled to reduce the database to a smaller dimension by gathering as much information on their trends and correlations. Two components were selected which account for the sum of 64.06% of the factors.