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An expert elicitation analysis for vessel allision risk near the offshore wind farm by using fuzzy rule-based bayesian network

Yu Q., Liu K.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2019

Vol. 13. no. 4

831--837

This paper develops an expert based framework for analysing and synthesising the ship allision risk near the offshore wind farm (OWF) on the basis of a generic Fuzzy Bayesian network and FMEA analysis. This framework is specifically intended to overcome the difficulty of using traditional risk assessment methods in OWF allision. Under the introduced framework, subjective belief degrees are assigned to model the incompleteness encountered in establishing the knowledge base. The fuzzy transformation technology is then used to introduce all judgements results under various situations. Fully, a Bayesian network is established to aggregate all relevant attributes to the conclusion and to prioritise potential allision risk level of each ship categories. A series of case studies of different ship categories are studied to illustrate the application of the proposed framework. Results show that the fishing vessel and the service vessel have a higher allision risk than the merchant vessel due to insufficient risk detection. The collision consequence of the tanker is significantly higher than other types of vessel. The framework facilitates subjective risk assessment when historical failure data is not available in their practice, which provides support to OWF-safeguarding and decision-making.

The Use of Linguistic Variables and the FMEA Analysis in Risk Assessment in Inland Navigation

Skupień E., Tubis A.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2018

Vol. 12, no. 1

143--148

The paper continues the study of the same authors, who previously proposed a method of risk assessment in inland navigation. In the literature there is a gap in the research area of a risk management of transportation systems, especially: inland navigation. The authors carried out interdisciplinary research and presented the results related to the identification of risk factors present in the systems of inland navigation. The paper presents inland navigation risk analysis, conducted using the linguistic variables and the FMEA method, taking into account technical, economic and social aspects. The aim of the article is to present a procedure for the assessment of risk in inland waterways transport, and carry out risk analysis for transport companies. In paper the proposal of behavior scenarios, methods of preventing and minimizing effects of pointed risks are shown.

Safety of Navigation During Dynamic Positioning on Mobile Water Transport Objects

Gabruk R., Tsymbal M.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2016

Vol. 10, no. 1

59--67

This paper presents an innovation methodology for quantity assessment the safety of dynamic positioning in locally confined area of technological work performance under nonlinear dynamic disturbances of environmental factors. The methodology is based on new integrated paradigm of prediction coordinated components interactions, which form dynamic positioning system. Proposed methodology implementation effect is based on the analysis of complex models that form the knowledge base. The comprehensive reserve of controllable thruster’s reactions was adopted as quantitative characteristic of dynamic positioning safety.