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Flood susceptibility mapping using qualitative and statistical methods in a semi-arid basin: case of the Manouba–Sijoumi watershed, Northeastern Tunisia

Khadraoui Nahed, Dahri Noura, Bouamrane Ali, Pham Quoc Bao, Abida Habib

Acta Geophysica

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2023

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Vol. 71, no. 5

2307--2323

EN

Floods are considered among the gravest natural disasters worldwide and have resulted in enormous human and material damage. The Manouba–Sijoumi basin (Northeast of Tunisia) is often flooded due to urban expansion, population growth and unplanned land use. This study aims to identify and to define the flood-prone areas of this basin for the 2003 and 2018 extreme events based on a Geographic Information System, a qualitative method (analytic network process-ANP) and a statistical model (frequency ratio-FR). The flood risk maps obtained by both models were validated using the receiver operating characteristic, the area under the curve (AUC) and inventory map. Areas of high and very high flood sensitivity are located mainly in urban settings, with an increase in risk between 2003 and 2018. The AUC values for both models were of the same significance (98%) for the year 2003 while those for the year 2018 were 94% and 98% for the ANP and FR models, respectively. This would imply that both models yielded reasonable results. However, the FR model showed an ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with expert judgements. The results indicate that the most influential factor on flooding in this area was land use/cover. Indeed, populations were largely settled in unsuitable sites for urbanization and in potentially flood-prone areas located mainly around the Sijoumi Sebkha, especially to the west and south of it. The findings of the study are of great value for policy makers and state authorities to achieve greater awareness and adopt strategies for environmental preparedness and management.

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Flood hazard susceptibility areas mapping using Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), Frequency Ratio (FR) and AHP-FR ensemble based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS): a case study for Kastamonu, Türkiye

Yilmaz Osman Salih

Acta Geophysica

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2022

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Vol. 70, no 6

2747--2769

EN

Global climate change brings with it various natural disasters. In particular, natural disasters such as foods destroy nature and human resources. The food disaster in Kastamonu province, primarily striking Bozkurt district and many other districts in Türkiye on August 11, 2021, causing both life and material losses, has been one of the most devastating disasters in the Black Sea region. In this study, various geospatial and statistical methods were used to produce food hazard susceptibility maps of Kastamonu province. In order to evaluate the food risk in Kastamonu, eleven different variables, i.e. rainfall, slope, elevation, distance from stream, land-use-land cover, lithology, curvature plan, curvature profile, Topographic Wetness Index, Stream Power Index and Normalised Differences Vegetation Index were used. Flooded areas were determined by the Modified Normalised Water Index (MNDWI) on the Google Earth Engine platform using Remote Sensing techniques. Flood points determined on the calculated MNDWI image are divided into 70% training and 30% testing dataset. Geographical Information Systems-based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Frequency Ratio (FR), and ensemble AHP-FR were used in the creation of food hazard susceptibility maps. The maps were divided into five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. On the map classified using AHP-FR, areas in high and very high sensitivity classes were calculated as 128.72 km2 and 6.89 km2 , respectively. These calculated areas constitute 0.99% and 0.05% of the entire region. On the other hand, part of Kastamonu province with an area of 484.07 km2 was determined as a moderate-risk area. This area covers 3.71% of the entire province. The remaining part of the province, with an area of 8729.39 km2 and 3697.30 km2 , is classified as very low and low, respectively. These areas cover 66.91% and 28.34% of the entire province, respectively. The study’s accuracy was tested using the receiver operating characteristic curves method. Area under curve values for AHP, FR, and AHP-FR were calculated as 0.965, 0.989, and 0.992, respectively. According to these values, using the AHP-FR ensemble gave more successful results than the other two methods.

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Rosyjskie wpływy w Niemczech

Romanowska A.

Wiedza Obronna

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2018

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nr 1-2

32--57

PL

Aktualnie w rosyjskich działaniach mających na celu wpływ na politykę Zachodu pojawiły się trzy nowe aspekty. Po pierwsze, są one skierowane nie tylko na peryferia Europy czy na poszczególne narody, takie jak Niemcy czy Polska, lecz także na destabilizację (od wewnątrz) całego projektu Unii Europejskiej (UE). Po drugie, zarówno zamaskowane, jak i jawne „aktywne środki” działania rosyjskiego państwa, są znacznie bardziej różnorodne, realizowane na większą skalę i bardziej zaawansowane technologicznie; nieustannie dopasowują się do zmieniającej się sytuacji. Po trzecie, uderzając jednocześnie w Europę i Stany Zjednoczone (USA), ingerencja Rosji zdaje się być skierowana na podważenie podstawowych wartości Zachodu. Celem tej strategii jest zakwestionowanie spójności i skuteczności Zachodu jako normatywnej siły utrzymującej porządek globalny oparty na uniwersalnych zasadach, a nie na sile. Dla Rosji, wpływy w Niemczech są priorytetem: osłabiając ten kraj, Rosja może skutecznie rozbijać UE jako instytucję oraz jedność państw europejskich, a także starać się zerwać transatlantycką więź między Unią a Stanami Zjednoczonymi. Rosyjskie służby wywiadowcze są aktywne od wielu lat, z dużą intensywnością działają przeciwko niemieckim interesom zarówno w ich kraju, jak i w Rosji, i nie ma powodu, by zakładać, że ich działalność szpiegowska zmniejszy się w przewidywalnej przyszłości. Niemcy prowadzą negocjacje z Rosją i Ukrainą w ramach procesu mińskiego, a także organizują i podtrzymują europejski konsensus w sprawie sankcji wobec Rosji. Działania te sprawiają, że Berlin jest główną przeszkodą dla Rosji w realizacji jej interesów w Europie i na Ukrainie. Temat ten był dostrzegany przez niemieckie think tanki i media przez ostatnie cztery lata – zbiegł się z aneksją Krymu i początkiem wzmożonej rosyjskiej aktywności, realizowanej na dużą skalę w niemieckich mediach społecznościowych. Przedmiotem analiz stały się również różne aspekty organizacji życia mniejszości rosyjskiej w Niemczech.

EN

Three things are new about Russian interference today. Firstly, it appears to be directed not just at Europes periphery, or at specific European nations like Germany or Poland, but at destabilizing the European project from the inside out. Secondly, its covert and overt active measures are much more diverse, larger-scale, and more technologically sophisticated; they continually adapt and morph in accordance with changing technology and circumstances. Thirdly, by striking at Europe and the United States at the same time, the interference appears to be geared towards undermining the effectiveness and cohesion of the Western alliance as such and at the legitimacy of the West as a normative force upholding a global order based on universal rules rather than might alone. For Russia, which is clearly focused on the destabilization of Europe and the Transatlantic Alliance, the influence in Germany is a priority: by weakening Germany, Russia can effectively break the EU as an institution and unity of European states, and also try to break the transatlantic link between the EU and the United States. A divided Germany was Ground Zero for espionage, propaganda, and other kinds of influence operations throughout the Cold War; this did not end with the fall of the Berlin Wall. The Russian intelligence services have been active for many years with high intensity against German interests in Germany and in the Russian Federation there is no reason to assume that their espionage activities will abate in the foreseeable future. Germany is negotiating with Russia and Ukraine in the scope of the Minsk process, and is organizing and upholding the European consensus on sanctions against Russia. These actions make Berlin the main obstacle for Russia in realizing its interests in Europe and Ukraine. The topic has been prominent on the radar of German think tanks and media for the past four years roughly coinciding with the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of large-scale Russian trolling in German social media. The various aspects of life of the Russian minority in Germany have also been a subject to analysis.

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Bezhalogenowe retardanty palenia o strukturze nano i mikro

Cichy B., Stechman M., Nowak M., Kużdżał E., Turkowska M.

Przemysł Chemiczny

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2011

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T. 90, nr 5

714-719