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Risk modelling and management in large-scale, distributed transportation systems

Montewka J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2012

Vol. 3, No. 1

113--122

Large-scale distributed transportation systems can pose various risks in terms of fatalities, environmental pollution, or loss of property. In particular, accident where a vehicle carrying large number of passengers is involved may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties, moreover it will immediately raise a public and political concern. This is an issue in case of maritime transportation systems (MTS), as the biggest ships nowadays can carry up to 8500 people at once (m/s Oasis of the Seas). Thereby lot of effort has been put to increase safety of ships carrying passengers; however the holistic approach to model and manage the risk existing in the MTS is still missing. This paper makes an attempt to fill this gap, by presenting a data-driven model evaluating risk level in the existing MTS and by introducing a systematic methodology for mitigating the risk. Moreover the MTS operating in the Gulf of Finland under non-ice conditions is addressed, where heavy passenger traffic is observed.