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What can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies

Piniewski M., Meresa H. K., Romanowicz R., Osuch M, Szcześniak M., Kardel I., Okruszko T., Mezghani A., Kundzewicz Z. W.

Acta Geophysica

2017

Vol. 65, no. 4

809--827

River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.

Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project

Romanowicz R. J., Bogdanowicz E., Debele S. E., Doroszkiewicz J., Hisdal H., Lawrence D., Meresa H. K., Napiórkowski J. J., Osuch M., Strupczewski W. G., Wilson D., Wong W. K.

Acta Geophysica

2016

Vol. 64, no. 2

477--509

This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish–Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight “twinned” catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021-2050) and the far-future (2071-2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.