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Finite Discrete Markov Model of Ship Safety

Smolarek L.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2010

Vol. 4, no. 2

223--226

The ship safety modeling is the process used to convert information from many sources about the ship as an antropotechnical system into a form so that it can be analyzed effectively. The first step is to fix the system (ship, human, environment) boundaries to clearly identify the scope of the analysis. The ship can be generally defined by conceptual sketches, schematics drawings or flow diagrams to establish the element hierarchy which evolves from the physical and functional relationships. The man could be generally defined by the operational procedures. The environment could be generally defined by the mission place and time of the year. The information is needed considering that the accidents are caused by factors associated with ship (failure, design defect), man (human error, workload), and environment. Safety is a system property that we intuitively relate to a system’s design, accident rates and risk. This work proposes finite discrete Markov model as an example of systematic approach to the analysis of ship safety.