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1 TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

1 2010

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The Effects of Causation Probability on the Ship Collision Statistics in the Gulf of Finland

Hanninen M., Kujala P.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2010

Vol. 4, no. 1

79--84

In this study the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland is studied by examining the collision probability estimates in a heavily used crossing area. In a commonly applied approach for estimating the probability of collision accidents, so-called number of collision candidates is multiplied with a so-called cau-sation probability. In this study a Bayesian network model for the causation probability estimation is applied with different parameter values in order to examine the effects of weather and human factors on collision probability in the crossing of Helsinki-Tallinn traffic and vessels navigating east- or westbound. The results show that the probability of collisions is very sensitive to the causation probability value and it should be modelled with great care to obtain reliable results.