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EN
On the SW slopes of the Mt. Kornuty (Magura Wątkowska mountain range in the Beskid Niski Mts.) is located one of the largest landslide areas in the Polish Flysch Carpathians. The morphotectonic analysis performed using contour diagrams and rose directional diagrams, made it possible to determine the direction of gravity mass movement. In total, over than 2500 measurements of the spatial orientation of joint surfaces were made within the landslide zone. Changing the direction of the tectonic anisotropy of the in situ and ex situ forms allowed conducting the morphogenetic analysis, i.e. specifying the types of gravitational movements. Besides the commonly occurring toppling, also rockfalls, rotation around the horizontal or vertical axis, and antithetical displacements (thelistric type) were observed. The combination of several types of gravitational movements of different age allows us to unequivocally say that it is a complex type of landslide.
EN
Landslides are one of the most prominent processes degrading the Beskidy Mts. slopes. Susceptibility assessment is based on the detailed mapping of the Dukla commune (235 km2) at the scale 1: 10,000 in frames of the project Landslide Counteracting System. The terrain affected by landslides is 19.59 km2, which is 8.34% of the researched area. The largest number of landslides can be found in the Beskid Dukielski Mts. area, where nearly 78% of all landslide areas are concentrated. Analysis of landslide-causing factors was performed using the index of entropy method. The following five factors were considered: lithology, slope inclination, slope aspect, distance to faults, and distance to drainage. The most important role in the development of mass movements in the study area is played by slope inclination (0.0079) and lithology of siliciclastic flysch (0.0066). The method applied also contributed to devising a landslide susceptibility map of considerable accuracy at 90.5%. The analyses of the landslide factors have proven that understanding of geology and landforms is not only of cognitive significance, but adds to practical applications in spatial management. The studies confirmed usefulness of large-scale mapping of landslides and applying statistical methods and GIS techniques in the spatial analysis of landform transformations. The obtained landslide susceptibility map can be a basis for assessing landslide risk. High and very high landslide susceptibility classes cover nearly 50% of the study area.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono zastosowanie naziemnego skaningu laserowego (TLS) do oceny wielkości zmian zachodzących w obrębie osuwiska Bodaki (Beskid Niski). Analiza porównawcza czterech cyfrowych modeli wysokościowych uzyskanych w wyniku skanowania pozwoliła na określenie z bardzo dużą dokładnością ilości materiału który został usunięty z osuwiska przez potok Bartniankę. Zastosowana technika pozwoliła także na określenie obszarów w największym stopniu przekształconych oraz tempa przemieszczania się wybranych fragmentów osuwiska.
EN
This paper presents application of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) to assess the magnitude of the changes taking place within the Bodaki landslide (Beskid Niski Mts.). The comparative analysis of four digital elevation models obtained by scanning allowed to determine with high accuracy the amount of material that was removed from landslides by the Bartnianka stream. The technique also allowed to identification the most transformed areas and the movement rate of selected parts of the landslide.
PL
W pracy przedstawiono ilościową ocenę zagrożenia osuwiskowego i związanego z nim ryzyka w testowym rejonie Karpat fliszowych (okolice Szymbarku w Beskidzie Niskim). Wykorzystano równanie Varnesa i schemat metodyczny, pokazujący etapy takiej oceny: od inwentaryzacji osuwisk, przez wyznaczenie podatności na osuwanie i zagrożenia, aż po oszacowanie ryzyka na badanym obszarze. W ten sposób po raz pierwszy w polskiej literaturze dokonano oceny ryzyka osuwiskowego w sposób kompleksowy. Do wyznaczenia podatności na osuwanie i zagrożenia wykorzystano techniki GIS i metodę ELR (Empirical Likelihood Ratio) należącą do klasy funkcji sprzyjania (Favouribility Function). Przeprowadzone modelowanie wykazało przydatność zastosowanych metod do przewidywania zagrożeń w skali obszaru badań (modelowanie w dużej skali – 1:10 0000). Wrażliwość (vulnerability) oszacowano na podstawie wskaźnika odnoszącego koszt napraw do kosztów odtworzenia obiektu. Z kompilacji map zagrożenia i potencjalnych strat powstała mapa ryzyka osuwiskowego dla obszaru badań. Przeprowadzona analiza strat i korzyści w przypadku zagrożenia osuwiskowego wykazała duży (nawet 20%) udział strat pośrednich w stosunku do strat bezpośrednich. Wynika z tego, że straty pośrednie nie mogą być pomijane przy oszacowaniu ryzyka osuwiskowego i powinny by uwzględniane w planowaniu przestrzennym.
EN
The paper presents quantitative estimation of landslide hazard and risk in the test area located in the Polish Flysch Carpathians (surrounding of Szymbark, Beskid Niski Mts.). The adopted approach is enrooted in Varnes equation and, thus, problem solving is tackled with a stepwise strategy comprising landslide inventory, susceptibility and hazard modelling, and assessment of related risk in the studied area. Under such framework the landslide risk has been evaluated comprehensively for the first time in Poland. Drawing upon GIS capabilities, landslide susceptibility and hazard were modelled using ELR (Empirical Likelihood Ratio) function, belonging to Favourability Functions. The performed multivariate statistical modelling turned to be useful for predicting landslide hazard in the test area (large scale modelling - i.e. 1:10 000). Vulnerability was estimated by relating costs of repairs to costs of analysed objects at risk. The developed landslide risk map is the outcome of compiling the landslide hazard map with the map of potential losses. Moreover, the performed cost-benefit analysis showed that indirect losses are significant (up to 20%) when compared to direct ones. Therefore, the indirect losses may not be neglected and have to be taken under consideration in spatial planning and landscape management.
EN
This study involves the integration of multiple thematic datasets for landslide susceptibility assessment through spatial prediction models. The proposed methodology has been applied in the Bystrzanka-Biczyska area (Beskid Niski Mts., Carpathians Mts., Poland), characterised by a very high density of landslides. The susceptibility assessment has been based on an indirect bivariate statistical analysis ("Weights of Evidence" modelling technique, Bonham-Carter et al., 1989) performed in order to predict the occurrence of an event (landslide) where well-known evidences (predictor variables) are available. According to the relative importance of each evidence, a landslide susceptibility map has been produced. Observing final prediction results, it is concluded that the susceptibility map gives useful information both on present instability of the area and its possible future evolution in agreement with the morphological evolution of the area.
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