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Quantitative characterization of unconventional (tight) hydrocarbon reservoir by integrating rock physics analysis and seismic inversion: a case study from the Lower Indus Basin of Pakistan

Talib Maryam, Durrani Muhammad Zahid Afzal, Palekar Arshad Hussain, Sarosh Bakhtawer, Rahman Syed Atif

Acta Geophysica

2022

Vol. 70, no 6

2715--2731

The paper demonstrates a successful application of Bayesian classification method to accurately predict petrophysical properties and lithofacies classification in the deep unconventional (tight gas) hydrocarbon resource potential of early Cretaceous in the Lower Indus Basin of Pakistan. To explore the true potential for exploration and development phases, we quantitatively characterized the tight gas reservoir based on an integrated methodology using the Bayesian approach constraint with rock physics analysis which utilized deterministic petrophysical results from a well information to extract the desired lithofacies at seismic scale. The employed methodology relied on stepwise sequential integration of all available data through petrophysical, rock physics analysis and seismic inversion technique. Simultaneous inversion approach is used to invert elastic properties for reservoir interpretation. Seismic-based petrophysical properties are predicted using regression analysis by establishing a functional relationship between well logs for Sembar formation. The rock physics template (acoustic impedance versus Vs/ Vs ratio) model helped to differentiate lithological units of sand and shale in the well. Three lithofacies (HC sands, shale and shalier sand) are properly classified in rock physics template, and their probabilities are accurately defined using Bayes’ theorem. Finally, estimated lithofacies and hydrocarbon probability map from the Bayesian approach are meticulously validated from well data. The quantitative seismic reservoir characterization study provided important support for the unconventional prospect evaluation and hydrocarbon reserve estimations necessary to delineate unexplored parts which could prove helpful in effectively planning for the horizontal well placement and optimal reservoir development.

Bayesian inference in the analysis of the failure risk of the water supply network

Tchórzewska-Cieślak Barbara, Rak Janusz R., Szpak Dawid

Journal of KONBiN

2019

Vol. 49, iss. 3

433--450

One of the basic subsystems of the collective water supply system is the water distribution subsystem which has a direct impact on the reliability and safety of water supply to consumers. Failures of water pipes may cause water losses (leaks), interruptions in the water supply to consumers and can be the cause of secondary water pollution in the water supply network. It was proposed to use Bayesian inference to locate failures on the water supply network and to determine a posteriori probability of water network failure. It was found that the conditional probability of distribution water supply network failure is definitely higher than the conditional probability of home connections failure. The research results should be used by the water supply company during the development of an operational strategy for the renovation and modernization of the water supply network.

Jednym z podstawowych podsystemów systemu zbiorowego zaopatrzenia w wodę jest podsystem dystrybucji wody, który ma bezpośredni wpływ na niezawodność i bezpieczeństwo dostawy wody do odbiorców. Awarie przewodów wodociągowych mogą powodować zarówno straty wody (wycieki), przerwy w jej dostawie do konsumentów oraz mogą być przyczyną wtórnego zanieczyszczenia wody w sieci wodociągowej. W pracy zaproponowano wykorzystanie wnioskowania bayesowskiego do lokalizacji awarii na sieci wodociągowej oraz do wyznaczenia prawdopodobieństwa „a posteriori” uszkodzenia danego rodzaju sieci. Stwierdzono, że prawdopodobieństwo warunkowe uszkodzenia przewodów rozdzielczych jest zdecydowanie wyższe niż prawdopodobieństwo warunkowe uszkodzenia podłączeń domowych. Wyniki badań powinny zostać wykorzystane przez przedsiębiorstwo wodociągowe podczas opracowywania strategii eksploatacyjnej dotyczącej renowacji oraz modernizacji sieci wodociągowej.