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1 Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes

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Identification of climate-weather change processes at Baltic Sea water area impacted on critical infrastructure safety and their accident consequences

Dąbrowska Ewa, Torbicki Mateusz

Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes

2021

Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021

77--116

There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the port oil piping transportation system and maritime ferry operating areas are presented.